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Global Politics Team
1 March 2026 |
Trump’s State of the Union Address
Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran
R Preetha
On 24 February, President Trump delivered his first State of the Union address of his second term to a joint session of Congress. It came against the backdrop of declining approval ratings, rising tensions with Iran, and voter frustration over the cost of living ahead of the November midterm elections. The following are the major takeaways.
1. Trump era as the beginning of the “Golden age of America”
Trump started his address by framing his second term as the start of a historic resumption for America. By associating the moment to the upcoming 250th anniversary of independence, he stated: “This is the golden age of America.” Trump contrasted present conditions with a year ago, stating he had inherited a “nation in crisis,” with steep economic issues, record-level inflation, open border, widespread crime domestically, and conflicts across the world. He put forth that the US has now witnessed a turnaround with secure borders, plummeting inflation, rising income, and a “roaring economy.”
2. Economic revival as a central narrative
Trump placed economic recovery at the core of his address. He referred to a drop in inflation, gasoline prices, and mortgage rates reaching four-year lows. He pointed to record stock market highs, 70,000 new construction jobs, and rising oil and gas production. Trump referred to cutting down on DEI programs, calling them “job-killing regulations.” The Big Beautiful Bill was lauded for providing no tax on tips, overtime and social security for senior citizens. On tariffs, he called the Supreme Court ruling as "very unfortunate.” Tariffs were described as “country-saving” and “peace protecting” measures, being one of the primary drivers for the economic turnaround. In essence, he framed economic revival around tax relief, tariffs, deregulation, energy expansion and market growth, reinforcing the claim that America is “winning again.”
3. Border Enforcement and Internal Security as a success story, with declining crime rates and the “war on fraud” over corruption
On border security, Trump highlighted that after four years the US today stands as the “strongest and most secure border in American history by far.” He put forth that in the last nine months, “zero illegal aliens” have been allowed. He added that fentanyl flows declined by 56 per cent and that the murder rate recorded its single largest drop in recorded history. He called on Congress to pass the “Dalilah law,” barring states from granting commercial licenses to undocumented migrants, and the “Save America Act,” requiring voter ID and proof of citizenship to vote. On internal security, he announced a “war on fraud” to be led by Vice President JD Vance, quoting alleged large-scale corruption in Minnesota and other states. He referred to the deployment of the National Guard and federal law enforcement to cities including Memphis, New Orleans and Washington, D.C., where he claimed crime had fallen sharply.
4. “Great Health Care Plan,” as a better plan and the Democrats’ efforts as “rip-offs”
Health Care was another key focus area in Trump’s SOTU address; he called it one of the largest “rip-offs of our times” by the Democrats, referring to the heightened health care costs. He criticised the Affordable Care Act for benefitting big insurance firms while imposing crushing costs on the public. In this context, he referred to the “Great Health Care Plan,” introduced by his administration, saying it will halt all payments to insurance companies, directly transfer the resources to people and will mandate “maximum price transparency.” He referred to the recently enacted most favoured nation agreements, stating Americans will now pay the lowest price anywhere in the world for prescription drugs, and called on Congress to codify the program into law.
5. A sharper and repeated critique of Democrats
Trump repeatedly criticised Democrats, attributing the issues of economy, immigration, health care, and internal security to policy failures by the Biden administration and its congressional allies. He referred to inflation under Biden as the worst in America’s history and critiqued Democrats for a “Biden-created housing problem.” He stated that all Democrats opposed his tax cuts and instead supported large-scale tax increases impacting the public. On security, he claimed Democrats cut off all funding for the Department of Homeland Security, creating a “Democrat shutdown,” and called for the immediate restoration of all funding. Overall, Trump associated his key agenda points to policy failures of Democrats.
6. Claims of ending eight wars, strong position on Iran and military buildup as “peace through strength”
Trump portrayed himself as a dealmaker stating he “ended eight wars” in his first ten months including Gaza, Israel and Iran, Congo and Rwanda, among others. He then referred to Iran, mentioning Operation Midnight Hammer as a breakthrough operation. Reiterating his stance on Iran, he put forth that: “I will never allow the world’s No. 1 sponsor of terror…to have a nuclear weapon…And no nation should ever doubt America’s resolve.” In this context, Trump referred to the US military as the “most powerful.” Rebuilding of the American military, and a recently approved trillion-dollar budget was described as “peace through strength.” He made glancing references to Venezuela, Russia, and Ukraine, and previously emphasized issues such as Greenland and China were absent in his address, reflecting changing priorities.
German Chancellor’s China Visit
Reducing trade deficit and recalibrating economic cooperation with Beijing
Femy Francis
What happened?
On 27 February, the three-day visit to China by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz concluded who arrived with a delegation of 30 German firms. He said: “Our message from a European point of view is the same: We want a balanced, reliable, regulated and fair partnership with China.” Merz also called for China to be part of mediating peace between Russia and Ukraine and said: “The big global political problems can no longer be tackled today without involving Beijing.” China is now set to buy 120 additional aircraft from European aircraft maker Airbus.
China’s President Xi Jinping, while meeting Merz, proposed three points: further developing German-China relations, for them to become innovative partners, and to encourage people-to-people exchanges. Xi said: “The more turbulent and complex the world becomes, the more China and Germany should strengthen strategic communication and enhance strategic mutual trust.” He also met Premier Li Qiang, who signed five documents on mitigating climate change, green transition, cooperation on animal disease prevention and sports collaboration.
What is the background?
First, China-Germany economic cooperation. China has overtaken Germany as its most important trading partner in 2025. There was a 2.1 per cent hike in trade estimated at USD 296.6 billion. China was the most important trading partner for Germany from 2016 to 2023, but in 2024, the US took the lead. But there is a large trade deficit for Germany, where they imported USD 179.13 billion from China, which is an 8.8 per cent increase from 2024. Germany exported USD 96 billion to China, which is a 9.7 per cent decrease from the year prior. This imbalance was a major point of discussion in Merz’s visits to China, as he sought greater cooperation and reorganisation in trade relations.
Second, Trump’s tariffs on Germany as a driver. The ousting of the US as Germany’s most important trading partner was largely due to tariffs imposed by the US President Donald Trump’s administration. There was a 5 per cent drop in trade, with foreign trade turnover of USD 165 billion. As he is scheduled to visit the US soon, Merz noted that he will represent the EU, as he firmly believes that tariffs benefit no one and hurt all. German exports to the United States have fallen lowest level in nearly four years, due to the impact of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. A report by IW found that “German exports to the US fell by 7.8 per cent during this period,” this is across all sectors in 2025.
What does it mean?
First, Germany is diversifying cooperation. The Trump tariffs made not only Germany, but the EU collectively realise the volatility and unpredictability of the US as a partner under Trump. On the one hand, it seeks to mediate a deal and to curb the tariffs; it is also now open to diversifying and officially engaging with China as a preferred trading partner. China has always been an important trading partner for Germany, but the tariffs by the US have further pushed this economic collaboration. This has two purposes: First, to leverage trade with one of the world’s largest economies; Second, to showcase to the US that alternatives are present.
Second, cutting losses. This visit by Merz mainly focused on reducing the trade gap, as it aimed to further their economic cooperation. The visit aims to recalibrate economic ties and the imbalance of trade deficit that is between the two countries. Germany realises it needs to work closely with Beijing, regardless of the trade gap. And therefore, it is best to rework the deficit and reduce this gap.
Third, strengthening allyship in Europe. The visit by Merz is not only for economic progress but also a diplomatic visit. With the US, the EU has also been sceptical of China, and this particular visit paves the way for the EU countries to negotiate and formulate similar deals. China provides a stronger market, technological hub, testing ground for new products and access to the global supply chain. For China, Germany provides experience in technology and talent for advanced manufacturing; it is a sophisticated market for China to sell to. Concurrently, both countries stand to benefit by working together.
PM Modi’s Visit to Israel
From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
Yesasvi Koganti
What happened?
During 25-26 February, Narendra Modi made a two-day visit to Israel. On 26 February, 16 agreements were signed covering defence, AI, cyber security, agriculture, trade, and digital payment systems including Critical and Emerging Technologies Partnership Negotiations. The visit also focused on free trade agreement, UPI’s entry to Israel, the establishment of 100 Agricultural Centres of Excellence, and an increase in the number of Indian workers by 50,000 over a period of five years.
PM Modi delivered an address at the Knesset, Israel’s Parliament, while he received the Speaker’s Medal and visited Yad Vashem, a memorial institution to the victims of the Holocaust, and supported the Gaza peace plan and restated his views against terrorism.
What is the background?
First, a brief background on India-Israel relations. India and Israel relations, which began in 1992, have evolved to a strong strategic relationship with defence as a key driver. Israel is a major defence supplier to India, while India is a major market for highly skilled labour for Israel. This relationship includes intelligence sharing as well as a joint approach to addressing issues related to regional security concerns. The visit of PM Modi to Israel in 2017, as well as other high-level interactions, indicates a desire to institutionalize strategic interactions, build upon operational interactions, and lay a foundation for trust in a complex regional context.
Second, increasing focus on emerging technologies and defence. India’s engagement with Israel takes place amid a growing emphasis on emerging technologies and defence in its economic and strategic planning. Key areas include artificial intelligence, quantum computing, fintech, cybersecurity, and critical minerals. Likewise, Israel’s technological expertise supports India in strengthening its defence, innovation, and start-up ecosystem. This visit can also help in aligning economic growth goals to foreign policy objectives, further underlining the strategic significance of the India and Israel collaboration.
Third, a brief background on their economic and bilateral trade relations. India and Israel's economic relations have been limited and largely focused on defence, with minimal engagement in technology, agriculture, and commerce. India aims to diversify beyond defence and make use of Israel’s expertise in innovation, digital payments, and agricultural technology. The PM Modi visit is a significant step towards this shift, with the aim to enhance trade with the free trade agreement, expand workforce opportunities, and institutionalise a broader economic collaboration.
What does it mean?
First, deepening and realigning India-Israel relations. Expansion of UPI to Israel, free trade negotiations and a five-year employment arrangement for 50,000 Indian citizens reflect the structural strengthening of India-Israel relations in the economic and Employment domains. MoUs promoting cooperation in cybersecurity, defence, artificial intelligence, agri-tech, and innovation reflect the opportunities for domestic growth of India through foreign investment, technology, and Israeli expertise. This reflects the paradigm shift from traditional defence cooperation to a broader and long-term relationship.
Second, structural strengthening of bilateral relations. The framework of a Special Strategic Partnership, government-to-government dialogue, and added ministerial-level dialogue in areas such as cybersecurity, defense, and space technology reflect the strengthening of the relationship between India and Israel. The agreements related to joint defense initiatives and intelligence cooperation reflect a planned and systematic engagement between the countries and highlight the trust and continuity in their relationship since India elevated its relationship with Israel in 2017.
About the authors
R Preetha is pursuing post-graduation in the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai, and is a Research Assistant at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.
Femy Francis is a Project Associate at NIAS, Bengaluru.
Yesasvi Koganti is an undergraduate student in the Department of Political Science at Madras Christian College, Chennai.
TWTW Regional Roundups
News from around the world
CHINA & EAST ASIA THIS WEEK
Germany and China: Chancellor Friedrich Merz urges fair trade, deeper investment during his first visit to China, aiming for an economic reset
On 25 February, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called on China to increase its investment in Germany while addressing market distortions, beginning his first official visit to Beijing since taking office. During the deliberations with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, Merz emphasized the need for a “fair” framework of cooperation, focusing on subsidies, industry overcapacity, and currency manipulation, which together accounted for the rising trade deficit between Germany and its major trading partner. Chinese President Xi Jinping called for better strategic communication amid an unstable international order, while Premier Li Qiang focused on protecting multilateralism and free trade. This was reportedly seen as a subtle way to respond to the protectionist trends linked to US President Donald Trump and to broader protectionist trends. Contrary to expectations of a readjustment in relations, the two countries agreed on five small-scale agreements covering climate cooperation, animal disease control, and sports exchanges. Merz, who was accompanied by a 30-member business delegation including representatives from Volkswagen and BMW, sought to balance Germany's economic dependence on China's large market with mounting demands to reduce strategic dependence.
Hong Kong: Court overturns Jimmy Lai’s fraud conviction but he remains jailed
On 26 February, a Hong Kong court overturned the fraud conviction and five-year, nine-month prison sentence of pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai, in a rare legal reprieve for the outspoken China critic, Reuters says. The Court of Appeal ruled that the trial judge had “erred” in finding Lai and another executive guilty over alleged lease violations linked to the use of Apple Daily’s headquarters. The judges quashed the convictions and set aside the sentences because the reasoning of the lower court was not supportable. But however, Lai will remain in prison because he is serving another 20-year sentence for conspiracy. His trial has attracted international attention and criticism from several Western countries. His son said the ruling “does not change anything” as Lai continues to serve his longer sentence. The Hong Kong government said it will study the judgement before deciding whether to appeal, leaving the broader legal battle unresolved.
China: Beijing removes 19 officials, including nine military figures, ahead of its annual “Two Sessions”
On 27 February, the BBC reported that China removed 19 officials, including nine military figures, from its list of national lawmakers ahead of the upcoming “Two Sessions” meetings. The decision was announced by the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, without providing details for the removal. This development follows President Xi Jinping’s recent removal of his highest-ranking general, Zhang Youxia, and comes amid ongoing anti-corruption drives. President Xi has called corruption “the biggest threat” to the Communist Party, though critics argue such campaigns have been used to sideline political rivals. State media reported that those removed include Li Qiaoming, commander of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Ground Force, Shen Jinlong, former PLA Navy commander, and several other military and provincial officials. China has seen similar military purges in recent times, including an October 2025 crackdown that removed nine top generals. The Two Sessions set for 04-11 March is the annual meeting of the NPC, which will outline China’s five-year plan and annual economic targets.
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ASIA THIS WEEK
Bangladesh and the EU: European Union eyes stronger ties with Dhaka
On 23 February 2026, The Daily Star reported that the European Union Ambassador to Bangladesh, Michael Miller, described the EU as Bangladesh’s most reliable and largest commercial partner, as well as a significant political ally of the new government. Speaking after meetings at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rahman and State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shama Obaed, he expressed optimism about launching a new chapter of intensified bilateral relations. Miller noted that the two sides are close to finalising the Partnership Cooperation Agreement (PCA) and voiced hope that it would soon be signed. He added that discussions covered the broad scope of EU-Bangladesh ties, including trade, development cooperation, humanitarian issues, and migration, underscoring the EU’s commitment to deepening engagement and exploring the full potential of the partnership.
Bangladesh and China: Ambassador pledges increased investment in Bangladesh amid political stability
On 25 February, The Daily Star reported that Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen said China would increase its investment in Bangladesh, noting that a politically stable government has been established in the country. He made the remarks during a courtesy call on Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed at the ministry. During the meeting, the home minister described China and Bangladesh as time-tested friends and said Dhaka seeks to elevate bilateral ties in light of regional, strategic and geographical realities. He highlighted that China is one of Bangladesh’s largest development partners, with investments in major infrastructure and development projects, and urged Beijing to further expand its investment footprint. Ambassador Yao noted that around 10,000 Chinese nationals are currently working across various sectors in Bangladesh, stressing that development and security are closely interlinked and calling for strengthened law enforcement and security measures to help foster greater investment confidence.
Bangladesh: Dhaka nominates its foreign minister to UNGA presidency
On 26 February, Dhaka Tribune reported that Bangladesh had nominated Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rahman as its candidate for the presidency of the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). The nomination follows Palestine’s withdrawal from the race, setting up a contest between Bangladesh and Cyprus. The election for the President of the General Assembly (PGA) is scheduled to take place in June in New York. The presidency for the 2026–27 term has been allocated to the Asia-Pacific regional group. Bangladesh previously held the post during the 41st session of the UNGA in 1986–87.
Nepal: Kathmandu to witness high competition in the upcoming elections
On 25 February, the Himalayan reported on the upcoming elections in Nepal, scheduled for a week later. 68 parties are taking part in the election, though the spotlight is mostly on three parties. They are the Nepali Congress (NC), the Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML), and the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). Despite this, other parties have also emerged very strongly in recent times, for example, the Ujyalo Nepal Party has also occupied the forefront of Nepali politics. Then there is the Labour Culture Party, which is the brainchild of Harka Sampang, the mayor of Dharan Municipality, which seeks to establish a culture of labour in the country then there is also the other old parties like the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), whose ultimate objective is to restore the monarchy in the country. The NC has been justifiably expecting a clean sweep, especially after crafting incredible change under the charismatic leader Thapa.
Myanmar: Russia approves bilateral investment protection pact
On 26 February, Irrawaddy reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a bilateral investment protection pact with Myanmar’s military junta, formalising an agreement signed in St. Petersburg last June and reinforcing Moscow’s expanding ties with Naypyitaw. The deal commits both sides to safeguard and promote cross-border investments, deepening cooperation that has grown steadily since Myanmar’s 2021 coup led by Min Aung Hlaing. While defense ties laid the foundation, the partnership has broadened into energy, agriculture and infrastructure projects, including a fertilizer plant in the capital and discussions over a potential nuclear facility. Trade between the two countries has risen in recent years but remains modest compared with China’s dominant economic presence, particularly through the China–Myanmar Economic Corridor. As Western sanctions persist, Myanmar’s junta continues to pivot toward Moscow and Beijing, seeking greater integration with blocs such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union.
Sri Lanka: Colombo in talks with South Korea on workforce cooperation
On 26 February, the Daily Mirror reported that the Sri Lankan administration was in talks with South Korean officials over workforce cooperation. The focal point of the discussions was reported to be on employment systems and skill development. The agenda of the talks included improving labour migration frameworks, protecting migrants from Sri Lanka, and strengthening institutional cooperation in workforce training. The Sri Lankan government hopes to gain a globally competitive workforce through such initiatives.
Pakistan and Iran: Tehran envoy highlights closer Islamabad-Tehran coordination amid shared security and regional priorities
On 25 February, Dawn reported that Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri-Moghaddam, said Pakistan and Iran shared views on several regional and international issues, including Palestine and that cooperation was required to address the challenges of terrorism and separatism. He spoke at an ISSI conference on Pakistan-Iran relations. He said the relationship between the two countries was in a ‘constructive phase’ as there had been over 25 visits at the level of foreign minister and above in the last two years, and as many as 25 MOUs and agreements had been signed in a variety of sectors, as well as many visits by senior dignitaries. Other speakers agreed that the relationship had deep historical roots and was increasingly moving in a positive direction. Challenges to the relationship, including terrorism, sectarianism and instability in the wider region, were also mentioned.
Pakistan: Islamabad, Rome, Madrid and Athens agree on legal pathways to tackle illegal migration
On 26 February, Dawn reported that Pakistan, Italy, Spain and Greece reached a consensus to promote legal migration pathways as a strategy to effectively combat illegal migration and human smuggling. The agreement was finalised during a four-nation conference held in Rome, where Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met with his European counterparts. The ministers agreed that creating regulated legal channels for migration is the most effective way to dismantle human smuggling networks and discourage dangerous irregular journeys. European partners appreciated Pakistan’s efforts, noting a 47 per cent reduction in illegal migration, and pledged enhanced capacity-building support through the European Union. The participants also finalised a joint policy framework to counter illegal migration, human smuggling and narcotics trafficking, while agreeing on the repatriation of criminals involved in serious offences and the establishment of stronger coordination mechanisms. The next meeting is scheduled to take place in Pakistan later this year.
Pakistan and Afghanistan: Islamabad strikes multiple targets in Afghanistan, declares ‘open war’
On 27 February, Reuters reported that Pakistan launched overnight air-to-ground missile strikes on Taliban government military facilities in Afghanistan, hitting Kabul, Kandahar, Paktia, Paktika, Khost, and Laghman, calling it an “open war.” Launched under the Operation Ghazab lil-Haq, attacks resulted in strikes against 22 targets belonging to the Afghan military. Ground battles and exchanges of heavy artillery fire have been reported along the 2,600km Durand Line, including the area around Torkham, with reported civilian casualties in the provinces of Paktika and Nangarhar. The Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif announced that Pakistan had reached its breaking point with this action as the country began to attack Taliban government forces located in Kabul.
Pakistan is still on high alert, including in the Punjab province, after previous strikes which Pakistan claimed were targeting Pakistani Taliban and Islamic State facilities. Military spokesperson Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said 274 Taliban officials and militants were killed and 12 Pakistani soldiers died, calling it an “effective, immediate and brutal response.” He stated that 13 Taliban fighters were killed, and 12 were wounded in two-hour retaliatory operations, confirming drone strikes on Pakistani military sites, which Islamabad said were intercepted without damage. In addition, Russia, China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran have urged an immediate de-escalation of tensions and offered to mediate.
Canada and India: PM Carney in India to boost trade and mend ties
On 27 February, the Hindu reported that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived in Mumbai on his first official visit to India, beginning a four?day trip that will also take him to New Delhi for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Prime Minister Carney’s visit aims “to reset the sometimes fractious relationship with the world’s most populous country” and to rebuild bilateral ties that “soured several years ago” after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged Indian government involvement in the killing of a Canadian Sikh separatist, a charge India has denied.In Mumbai, Prime Minister Carney will meet Indian business leaders and launch talks on a comprehensive trade agreement “which is expected to be completed by November,” before travelling to the capital. Reuters reports that Prime Minister Carney is seeking closer ties with India as part of a strategy to reduce Canada’s dependence on the United States and build a new trading framework led by “middle?power countries.”
MIDDLE EAST THIS WEEK
Iran and China: Tehran nears deal with Beijing for advanced anti-ship missiles amid rising US pressure
On 24 February, Reuters reported that Iran is set to finalize a deal with China for the purchase of CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles. These missiles, manufactured by China, have a range of 290 kilometres and use low-altitude and high-speed flight to avoid air defence systems on naval platforms. The sources state that the initial talks regarding the purchase of these missiles began two years ago and intensified after the brief Israel-Iran conflict in 2025, which left Iran’s missile arsenal depleted. Iranian military and government leaders, including Deputy Defense Minister Massoud Oraei, reportedly visited China to advance negotiations. Neither Iran nor China has released information regarding the terms of the deal, including the time frame for delivery and the price of the missiles. An Iranian foreign ministry official stated, Iran is prepared to activate existing military and security agreements with its allies. China’s Foreign Ministry said it was unaware of the reported missile negotiations, while its defence ministry did not comment. The White House declined to directly address the talks, but President Donald Trump warned that the United States would take “very tough” action if Iran fails to reach a nuclear deal, underscoring rising tensions that also implicate China.
India and Israel: PM Modi visits Israel amid US–Iran tensions and domestic political criticism
On 25 February, Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Israel for a two-day visit, holding talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv. The visit, which includes discussions on artificial intelligence and defence cooperation, comes at a time of heightened regional tensions due to the United States’ naval buildup near Iran and the risk of possible military strikes. PM Modi is scheduled to address the Knesset and pay tribute at Yad Vashem, signalling the continued deepening of India–Israel ties since his landmark 2017 visit. However, the trip has drawn sharp criticism at home. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) termed it a “betrayal of the Palestinian cause,” while the Indian National Congress accused Modi of “moral cowardice.” Opposition leaders also questioned the timing, citing India’s advisory for its nationals to leave Iran amid fears of escalation.
The US, Israel and Iran: The US and Israel launch military strikes on Iran targeting its top leaders in what the Pentagon calls “OPERATION EPIC FURY”; “all occupied territories and the criminal U.S. bases in the region have been struck” says Iran's Revolutionary Guards
On 27 February, the US and Iran held talks mediated by Oman over Iran’s nuclear programme but ended without a deal that could avert potential US strikes amid a military buildup in the region. Iran demanded the lifting of US sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, which the US insisted would happen only after deep concessions from Tehran. Iran has also offered undefined new concessions but refused to discuss its ballistic missile programme, which posed a hurdle to reaching a deal.
On 28 February, the US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, targeting top leaders of the country. The Pentagon named the campaign “OPERATION EPIC FURY.” President Trump called the “massive” operation as essential to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and to eradicate “imminent threats from the Iranian regime.” He urged civilians to remain sheltered, stating that “bombs will be dropping everywhere,” and added: “When we are finished, take over your government.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attack would “remove the yoke of tyranny.” According to an Israeli official, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian were both targeted. Iran condemned the strikes and responded with missile attacks on Israel and US interests across the Gulf. The Revolutionary Guards stated that “all occupied territories and the criminal U.S. bases in the region have been struck” and that operations would continue until “the enemy is decisively defeated.” The UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan, all of which have a US military presence, said they had intercepted the Iranian missiles; Bahrain also confirmed an attack on a service center of the US Fifth Fleet. Explosions were heard in Abu Dhabi, and Dubai. The escalation prompted global airlines to cancel flights across the Middle East, raised concerns over potential increases in oil prices, and has put a strong question mark over prospects for a diplomatic solution to the US-Iran tension.
AFRICA THIS WEEK
South Sudan: Juba at ‘dangerous point’ as killings surge, warns UN
On 28 February, the UN human rights chief said that South Sudan is at a ‘dangerous point’ as a surge in killings and an uncertain political trajectory threaten a fragile peace deal. Western powers accused groups linked to the military of carrying out a massacre. The government denied that soldiers had deliberately targeted any civilians but acknowledged that they may have been caught in the crossfire. The killings of 189 civilians were documented in January, and a forty-five per cent increase in rights violations and abuses was reported from the previous month. Military discipline appeared to have collapsed in both government and opposition forces in Jonglei, Eastern Equatoria, Upper Nile, Unity, Central Equatoria, Western Bahr el Ghazal, Western Equatoria, and Warrap states, where the troops have demonstrated disregard for civilian protection.
Zimbabwe: Government halts all raw mineral and lithium exports due to compliance concerns
On 25 February, Zimbabwe froze the exports of all raw minerals and lithium concentrates with immediate effect due to concerns over malpractices and leakages in the export system. The mines ministry stated that the ban will apply to all minerals currently in transit and will continue until further notice as the government considers procedures to “curb leakages and enhance efficiency.” The government stated that it was done in the national interest and ensured its commitment to in-country value addition and compliance. Zimbabwe, Africa’s leading lithium producer, exported 1.128 million metric tons of lithium spodumene concentrate in 2025, 11 percent from the previous year. Most of these exports are destined for China, where they are processed. Chinese companies have invested heavily in the sector, with projects worth USD 400 million and USD 500 million announced for the processing of lithium sulphate in the country.
EUROPE THIS WEEK
The War in Ukraine: Geneva talks resume amid remains exchange and renewed strikes; President Zelenskiy marks the fourth anniversary by urging European partners to sustain their support
On 26 February, Ukrainian and US officials met in Geneva for a new round of talks. The discussions follow earlier US-brokered meetings that included Russian negotiators but failed to produce a breakthrough. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said he expects the Geneva discussions to pave the way for trilateral negotiations in early March and potentially elevate talks to the leaders’ level. Ahead of the talks, Russia said it returned the remains of 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers and received the bodies of 35 Russian troops, part of a broader agreement reached in Istanbul in June 2025 covering the return of fallen soldiers and wounded prisoners. Hours before negotiations, Russia launched drones and missiles across six Ukrainian regions, injuring dozens.
Earlier, on 24 February, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, President Zelenskiy called for sustained international support, given visible divisions among its European partners. The EU member states sought agreement on a new sanctions package against Russia and a 90 billion euro loan for Kyiv, but Hungary maintained its veto on both measures. Addressing the European Parliament on the occasion, Zelenskiy called on the bloc to defend shared values and put forth that EU membership would guarantee Ukraine’s future security after a peace settlement, stating Kyiv could be ready by 2027. The EU is exploring interim benefits before full accession reforms are completed. “Russians must learn that Europe is a union of independent nations and millions of people who do not tolerate humiliation and will not accept violence,” he said. The commemoration in Kyiv included prayers attended by senior European leaders, however, no major Western heads of government were present. Zelenskiy further called for tighter sanctions and additional air defence missiles, criticising countries continuing to purchase Russian oil. Moscow saw no official anniversary ceremonies. Peskov stated that Russia is open to diplomacy, but he did not provide details on when further talks could take place. On platform X, President Macron wrote: “One day, Russians will grasp the enormity of the crime committed in their name.”
The EU and Mercosur: EU fast tracks Mercosur trade deal despite French dissent
On 27 February, the European Commission said the EU will provisionally apply its free trade agreement with South American bloc Mercosur “to ensure it secures first-mover advantage,” allowing tariff cuts and other trade measures to begin two months after an exchange of notifications. Normally, Brussels waits for EU governments and the European Parliament to ratify such deals, but MEPs led by French deputies have voted to challenge the agreement in court, potentially delaying full implementation by up to two years. French President Emmanuel Macron, whose country is the EU’s largest agricultural producer, called the move “a surprise, a bad surprise” and “disrespectful,” warning it will sharply increase imports of cheap beef, sugar and poultry and undercut already restive farmers. The pact with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, concluded after some 25 years of talks, could remove about 4 billion euros in duties on EU exports, making it the bloc’s biggest trade deal by tariff cuts.
The UK: Green Party captures seats from Labour in Westminster by-election
On 27 February, the Green Party of England and Wales won the parliamentary by-election in Gorton and Denton. This marked its first-ever Westminster by-election victory. Green candidate Hannah Spencer secured about 41 per cent of the vote. The by-election was triggered after the resignation of the previous MP due to ill health. The result reflected growing voter dissatisfaction with mainstream parties and signals mounting pressure on the governing Labour Party amid declining public support. Analysts view the outcome as evidence of rising support for smaller parties and environmental platforms in urban constituencies. The win is also significant, as the Greens had historically struggled to surpass double-digit vote shares in parliamentary by-elections.
AMERICAS THIS WEEK
The US: The US Customs and Border Protection to halt collecting tariffs imposed under the IEEPA on 24 February
On 23 February, Reuters reported that US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will stop collecting tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) on 24 February, following the US Supreme Court’s decision declaring the duties unlawful. In a notice to shippers through its Cargo Systems Messaging Service, CBP put forth that all tariff codes associated with President Trump’s IEEPA orders would be deactivated. The suspension does not affect other tariffs, including those under the Section 232 national security statute and the Section 301 unfair trade practices statute. According to Reuters, the ruling places over USD 175 billion in previously collected revenue for potential refund claims. This tariff halt comes as President Trump introduced a new 15 per cent global tariff under Section 122, that permits tariffs up to 15 per cent but requires congress approval to extend them beyond 150 days. This raises the prospects of further legal challenges given no President has invoked Section 122 so far. Meanwhile, China’s Commerce Ministry stated it is conducting a “full assessment” of the ruling and called on Washington to remove “unilateral tariff measures,” noting that continued tensions are “harmful” for both countries. The European Commission similarly called on the US to uphold the terms of the EU-US trade deal reached last year, stating that “a deal is a deal.” The Commission stated that the US must provide complete clarity on the follow-up measures after the court-ruling.
Mexico: Violence erupts in Mexico following the killing of El Mencho, head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)
On 23 February, the BBC reported that a wave of violence had swept Mexico after security forces killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho”, the country’s most wanted drug lord and leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). He was killed in a military operation near the mountain town of Tapalpa in Jalisco state. Officials said four suspected cartel members were killed and three soldiers wounded before El Mencho died from his injuries while being flown to Mexico City. In response, armed CJNG members set fire to buses and trucks, blocked highways and exchanged gunfire with security forces across several states. Violence has erupted in cities across Mexico, including cities like Jalisco, Colima, Guanajuato and Michoacán. Videos shared online showed masked men with rifles setting vehicles alight, while residents described the situation as “like a warzone." Mexico’s President urged people to stay indoors and said extra troops were being deployed to restore order. The White House confirmed that US intelligence had helped locate El Mencho, who was wanted in the US for shipping large quantities of cocaine, methamphetamine and fentanyl to the United States.
President Trump’s State of the Union address: Hails “golden age of America,” emphasises economic revival and border security; sharp criticism of Democrats and reiterates stance on Iran
On 24 February, President Trump addressed a joint session of Congress amid declining approval ratings, rising tensions with Iran, and voter frustration over the cost of living, ahead of the November midterm elections. The President, early in his speech, put forth that “Our nation is back -- bigger, better, richer and stronger than ever before,” and described his presidency as setting forth “the golden age of America.” The speech maintained focus on domestic economic policy; Trump stated that inflation, mortgage rates, and gas prices were falling, while the stock market, oil production, foreign investment, construction, and manufacturing jobs were rising. He defended tax cuts, efforts to lower drug prices, and the tariff measures struck down by the Supreme Court as a “very unfortunate ruling,” stating that they were generating revenue. Although he addressed household concerns such as housing, healthcare, and retirement, he did not directly acknowledge the continuing concerns of high food and housing costs. On foreign policy, Trump claimed ending eight wars. Iran was mentioned only later in the speech wherein he reiterated the need to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, but did not clarify the scope or details of potential military action. He made limited references to Venezuela, Russia, and Ukraine, and previously emphasized issues such as Greenland and China were absent in his address this year, reflecting changing priorities.
Trump repeatedly spoke with a sharp, critical tone about Democrats, aimed at their immigration policies. He stated that “today, our border is secure,” highlighting that in the past nine months, “zero illegal aliens have been admitted.” He associated strict border control to controlled fentanyl flows and a historical decline in the murder rate. The address also included calls for new legislation, such as the “Dalilah law” banning states from granting commercial licences to undocumented migrants; restoring full funding to the Department of Homeland Security; and passing the “Save America Act,” which requires voter ID and proof of citizenship to vote. Trump called for a “war on fraud” and cited alleged corruption in states such as Minnesota. The address, therefore, combined claims of economic revival, secure borders, progressive measures on social safety aspects, the golden age of America, with repeated criticism of Democrats and ambiguity on Iran.
The US: Rare earth shortages worsen aerospace and semiconductor sectors despite trade truce with China
On 26 February, suppliers to US aerospace and semiconductor firms face worsening rare earth shortages, weeks before President Trump is expected to meet President Xi Jinping in Beijing, where critical mineral supply issues are expected to be a key agenda item. The shortages centre on rare earths such as yttrium and scandium, which play vital roles in defence technology, aerospace manufacturing and semiconductor production. The US currently has no domestic scandium production and no operational alternative sources outside China. Although China has allowed many rare earth exports to resume since it imposed restrictions in April, shipments of these metals rarely make it to the US despite the easing of tensions between the countries in October. The price of yttrium has jumped by sixty per cent, and supplies are being prioritised for large customers. Shortages of scandium and yttrium have put production of 5G chips and engine coatings at risk.
The US and Cuba: President Trump raises the prospect of a ‘friendly takeover’ of Cuba; Separately, Havana’s border guards intercept a Florida-registered speedboat
On 27 February, Reuters reported that the US President Donald Trump raised the prospect of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba as he departed the White House for Texas, saying the island was “in a lot of trouble” and that Secretary of State Marco Rubio was handling the issue “at a very high level." President Trump told reporters that Cuba “doesn’t have any oil, they don’t have anything right now,” and said its government “want our help,” adding: “Maybe we’ll have a friendly takeover of Cuba. I can see that happening.” He called such a move “something that would be very good for the people that were kicked out,” referring to Cuban exiles. President Trump did not give details on what he meant by a takeover, and there was no immediate comment from the Cuban government.
On a separate development, on 25 February, Cuba’s interior ministry said that its border guards intercepted a Florida-registered speedboat in Cuban territorial waters near Cayo Falcones, stating that 10 people aboard planned “an infiltration with terrorist aims.” As per Cuban authorities those on the vessel fired first, injuring a Cuban commander, followed by which guards shot dead four people and injured six others. They later stated that all 10 were Cuban nationals residing in the United States and that most had “prior records involving criminal and violent activity.” The incident comes in the backdrop of increased tensions between the US and Cuba following Washington's actions against Cuba’s ally Venezuela and restrictions on oil shipments to Cuba. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the encounter “highly unusual” and said Washington would independently verify the details, and not rely on information from the Cuban government.
The US: Trump orders phase-out of Anthropic AI amid Pentagon supply-chain risk designation
On 28 February, Reuters reported that Donald Trump directed U.S. agencies to stop working with Anthropic after the Pentagon labelled the firm a supply-chain risk. The decision follows a prolonged dispute over AI guardrails and military use of advanced systems. Trump announced a six-month phase-out of Anthropic’s technology across the Defense Department and other federal agencies, warning that if the company failed to cooperate, he would use the “full power of the presidency” to enforce compliance. The designation could bar contractors from using Anthropic’s AI in Pentagon-related work, posing a serious threat to its government business. Anthropic said it would challenge the move in court, arguing the action is legally unsound and sets a dangerous precedent. Meanwhile, rival OpenAI confirmed a new defence agreement, underscoring shifting alignments in the race to supply AI for national security applications.
About the TWTW Team
Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha and Aishal Yousuf are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai.
Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. Yesasvi Koganti and Kirsten Coelho are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai.
Tonica Sharon C and Aishwarya D Pai are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Mount Carmel College, Bengaluru.
Adwitiyo Das and Sreemaya Nair are undergraduate students at the Department of International Relations, Peace Studies and Public Policy, St Joseph's University.
Sakshi Yadav is a postgraduate student at the Department of International Studies, Political Science, and History, Christ University, Bengaluru.
Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha is an undergraduate student double majoring in BSc Clinical Psychology and BA Political Science at the School of Liberal Arts, Alliance University, Bengaluru.
Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at NIAS.
Vishal Manish M is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai.
