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Farhaz Rashid Ahmed
25 May 2025 |
The following note was first published as a part of The World This Week #312 Vol 7, No 21, 25 May 2025
Poland’s Presidential Elections:
No clear winners, yet
Farhaz Rashid Ahmed
What happened?
On 20th May, the National Electoral Commission of Poland announced the results for first-round of presidential elections, held on May 18. Rafał Trzaskowski, the incumbent Mayor of Warsaw from the centrist-Civic Coalition (KO) led with 31.36 per cent votes, while, the independent candidate Karol Nawrocki backed by the nationalist-Law and Justice party (PiS) followed closely with 29.54 per cent, followed by far-right candidates Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun gaining significant support, both receiving about 20 per cent of the total votes collectively. As no candidate could achieve 50 per cent, a second-round of elections would be held on 1 June.
What is the background?
First, the presidential electoral system in Poland. The citizens vote directly to choose their president for a five-year term. The President can serve maximum two terms. The presidency is key to powers such as legislative veto, overseeing military and judicial appointments making it important in Poland’s governance.
Second, a brief note on the contestants and their political agenda. Rafał Trzaskowski, a pro-European Civic Coalition (KO) candidate with background in EU politics and experience as Warsaw’s mayor, has advocated for liberal values such as LGBTQ+ rights, thus, drawing criticism from conservative regions. Karol Nawrocki, an independent backed by Justice and Law party (PiS) campaigns on nationalism, tax cuts, lower energy costs and resistance to the EU’s policies on climate and assertive stance on Ukraine.
Third, a brief note on recent presidential elections in Poland. The elections have been dominated by right-leaning nationalist-Law and Justice party (PiS) and pro-EU centrist-Civic Coalition (KO), winning thrice and once, respectively. In 2005, PiS’ Lech Kaczyński won, defeating current Prime Minister Donald Tusk with 54.05 per cent in second-round. In 2010, Bronisław Komorowski won from Civic Platform (PO) that is a member of current KO coalition, defeating PiS’ Jarosław Kaczyński with 53.01 per cent in second-round, embarking it as the last non-PiS party’s win in Poland’s presidential election. While, in 2015 and 2020, the outgoing President Andrzej Duda got elected, 51.05 and 51.03 per cent, respectively.
Fourth, the electoral issues in Poland. Concerns related to independence of the judiciary, economic issues like inflation and energy costs and social divisions over issues of abortion, LGBTQ+ rights and freedom of media had dominated the electoral issues. With Poland sharing borders with Belarus and Ukraine, concerns related to national security and foreign policy were also seen as key electoral issues. While, centrist-KO promotes institutional reforms and closer ties with EU and NATO on various aspects; nationalist-PiS narratives emphasize defence autonomy and nation’s security.
What does it mean?
This election has crucial importance in deciding Poland’s future, with a clear difference between Trzaskowski’s pro-EU liberalism and Nawrocki’s nationalist-PiS-backed agenda. KO’s win could unlock withheld European Union (EU) Recovery Funds, bring judicial reforms and align Poland more closely along policies of the EU, such as on climate issues and Ukraine. It would be the first time since 2015 that both parliament and president aligned politically, enabling major reforms on liberal values. Narwocki’s win on the other hand would mean moretax cuts and energy reforms.
About the author
Farhaz Rashid Ahmed is enrolled at the Department of International Relations, Peace & Public Policy, St Joseph’s University, Bangalore.
