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Lekshmi MK
8 June 2025 |
The following note was first published as a part of The World This Week #314 Vol 7, No 23, 08 June 2025
Poland's Presidential Elections:
The political tightrope ahead
Lekshmi M K
What happened?
On 01 June, second round of Presidential elections took place where Karol Nawrocki won 50.89 per cent of the total votes. His competitor, Rafal Trzaskowski won 49.11 percent of the total votes.
What is the background?
First, a brief note on Poland’s presidential elections. On 20 May, Poland's National Electoral Commission announced the results for first-round of presidential elections held on 18 May. The election seen a voter turnout of 67.31 per cent. Rafał Trzaskowski, the incumbent Mayor of Warsaw from the centrist-Civic Coalition (KO) led with 31.36 per cent votes. The independent candidate Karol Nawrocki backed by the nationalist-Law and Justice party (PiS) followed closely with 29.54 per cent, followed by far-right candidates Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun gaining significant support. Both collectively received 20 per cent of the total votes. As no candidate could achieve 50 per cent, a second-round of elections scheduled on 1 June.
Second, a brief note on the candidates. Karol Nawrocki is an emerging conservative politician affiliated with the Law and Justice (PiS) party. He is a historian and known for his conservative and nationalist positions, including opposition to illegal immigration and skepticism towards the European Union. Nawrocki was aligned with nationalist and conservative both domestically and internationally. Rafał Trzaskowski is a Polish liberal politician and the Mayor of Warsaw since 2018. He belongs to the Civic Coalition (KO) and is known for his pro-European Union stance and support for civil rights. He narrowly lost the 2020 election and again in 2025, both times in the runoff.
Third, the major electoral issues. People were discontent over political issues such as judicial reforms, media control, and disagreements with the EU which eventually fueled conservative narratives about national sovereignty. Economic grievances especially rising inflation, housing costs, and rural-urban disparity amplified calls for leadership that promised economic protection and welfare targeting the countryside.
What does it mean?
First, a potential deadlock in parliament. Nawrocki’s presidency may lead to increased political deadlock, as his conservative Law and Justice (PiS)-aligned stance could clash with the more centrist or liberal policies of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition. The President’s veto power may block key reforms, including judiciary, media freedom, and EU cooperation. In anticipation of these challenges, Tusk recently called for a vote of confidence in Parliament to reaffirm support for his government. This move reflects both the rising tension and the fragile balance of power.
Second, the rural voter base for Nawrocki’s and its implications. Many voters in the rural areas are worried about the economic impact of Poland’s involvement in the Ukraine war, as local agriculture and small industries face rising costs and uncertainties. Nawrocki’s cautious approach to the conflict appealed to these voters, who prioritized economic stability and want to avoid further hardships.
Third, the rise of right-wing populism in Poland and the EU response. In recent years, Poland and several EU countries have seen growing support for right-wing populist movements that emphasize nationalism, traditional values, and skepticism toward immigration and the European Union. In Poland, this shift reflects concerns over economic inequality, cultural identity, and dissatisfaction with liberal policies.
About the Author
Lekshmi M. K. is a postgraduate student in the Department of Political Science at Madras Christian College.
