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IPRI Team
6 February 2026 |
Conflict Weekly Focus Note
Ukraine Peace talks in Abu Dhabi:
Negotiations without a ceasefire or resolution
Padmashree Anandhan
In the news
On 04 February, ahead of the talks, Ukraine’s military reported massive drone attacks by Russia damaging energy infrastructure and civilian areas. Overall, Ukraine and Russia remain divided over core issues on ceding control of the Donbas region and the Russian-occupied territories.
On 05 February, the US, Ukraine, and Russia resumed the second round of trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi, followed by the previous round in January. The delegations included Ukraine’s former Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov, US special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Russia's envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, who met over two days. However, no breakthrough was achieved. The major outcome was only a prisoner swap of 314 soldiers between Kyiv and Moscow.
On 05 February, the US and Russia decided to re-establish high-level military-to-military dialogue, restarting communication channels that have been inactive since 2021. The re-establishment is aimed at reducing risks of miscalculation and managing pressures between the two nuclear powers even as talks continue.
On 06 February, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that the EU is open to engaging Russia within the current negotiation framework but will not pursue parallel or competing talks that could undermine the trilateral process.
Issues at large
First, the symbolic talks without any breakthrough. The two rounds of talks held between the US, Russia and Ukraine during the last weeks continue to be symbolic. The efforts have so far failed to achieve a breakthrough to stop the war on the ground and establish a peace negotiation on the table. The US administration has been cautious and positive, while Russia has shown no sign of a ceasefire agreement or reduction of hostilities. Central questions on territory and security guarantees still linger. Continuing Russian strikes inside Ukraine are seen by Ukraine as Russian tactics to divert from de-escalation.
Second, a recalibration in the US-Russian relations, and the rising European apprehensions. A major outcome of the trilateral dialogue was the US and Russia’s decision to re-establish military-to-military dialogue. Although framed as a risk-reduction measure to avert miscalculation between two nuclear powers, this development indicates a partial ice-break after years of diplomatic freeze. The bilateral engagement risks strengthening Ukrainian and European fears of stabilising US–Russia relations, while the underlying issues (Security guarantees, Ukraine’s right over Donbas) of the conflict take a backseat.
Third, Europe’s continuing political support with less ground impact for Ukraine. The EU continues to issue strong support for Ukraine, constantly stressing the need for credible security guarantees and warning against any settlement that rewards territorial aggression. However, these statements are yet to translate into tangible, enforceable mechanisms that would empower Ukraine’s negotiating position. Europe remains largely outside the core trilateral framework, forced by internal divisions and dependence on US leadership. EU’s role risks being reduced to that of a normative voice rather than a decisive security actor.
Fourth, the growing role of external mediators. Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have been the backbone to facilitate dialogue and achieve humanitarian outcomes. Abu Dhabi’s hosting of trilateral talks and its involvement in prisoner exchanges reflect a broader trend of non-Western actors positioning themselves as realistic mediators in global conflicts. While these efforts have brought tangible results, especially prisoner swaps, they continue to be limited to confidence-building and humanitarian measures rather than conflict resolution.
In perspective
The peace talks are likely to continue to prevent the conflict from escalating further while a ceasefire seems faraway. Reopening of military-to-military channels, humanitarian exchanges, and neutral mediation platforms may be the small wins; however, the core issue over the territorial dispute and the question of Ukraine's security remains frozen. Within the trilateral framework, Ukraine is left in an uncomfortable position dependent on the West, where the US focuses on reducing risk and strategic stability, while Russia seeks to capitalise on battlefield gains.
Conflict Weekly Focus Note
Continuing militant attacks in Balochistan:
Expanding violence, Security-first response and Missing political dialogue in Pakistan
Akshath K
In the news
On 31 January, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) launched a series of violent attacks targeting military bases and police stations in at least nine districts in Balochistan province, including Quetta, Gwadar, Mastung, Nushki, Pasni, and Kharan, killing 31 civilians and 17 security officials. At least a dozen towns and cities in the province reported attacks.
On 01 February, Pakistan announced a counterinsurgency campaign against the group that killed 145 militants on the first day alone. The police also suspended Internet and train services in the province.
On 04 February, security forces retook the desert town of Nuskhi after a three-day battle with militants.
On 05 February, Pakistan announced the end to “Operation Radd-ul-Fitna-1”, which ultimately ended up killing 216 militants. Train services were partially restored.
Issues at large
First, the continuing and expanding violence in Balochistan. After Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Balochistan was the second-worst hit by violence in 2025. This has been a rising trend. According to the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), since 2020, fatalities from violent attacks in Balochistan have been on a steady increase, from 138 in 2020 to 398 in 2023 to 956 in 2025. Violence has also been expanding in geographical scope, with only a handful of districts being affected in 2020 to all 36 districts experiencing violence in 2025. Militant groups in Balochistan have been growing more aggressive and offensive, departing from their traditional hit-and-run tactics to more sophisticated and coordinated attacks targeting critical infrastructure. This is seen once again with coordinated attacks by the BLA in nine districts across the province. The militant attacks prompted a major military intervention, including the use of helicopters and drones to retake Nushki in a three-day battle with the BLA. The latest round of attacks indicates that Balochistan continues to see a disproportionate amount of violence from militant groups.
Second, a military-first response from the government. Often, violence in the province has been treated with violence by the state. In response to the latest attacks, Pakistan decided to launch a counterinsurgency campaign called Operation Radd-ul-Fitna-1. The military killed 216 militants across four days in the province, making it one of the deadliest weeks in Balochistan’s recent history. Even before the attack, security officials had conducted intelligence-based operations (IBOs) in Harnai and Panjgur districts, killing over 40 militants. This is in line with Balochistan Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti saying that the solution to the province’s issues lies with the military rather than political dialogue. This heavy-handed approach has continued to create resentment within the population against the state, which they view as not addressing their grievances.
Third, the missing political dialogue. Following the attacks, the government made it clear that it was not going to pursue diplomatic talks to resolve the Balochistan issue. The government and the Baloch people have been at loggerheads for over 70 years, with the people viewing the state as the main reason for their political grievances and economic disenfranchisement. The expansion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into the province and the increased migration of non-Baloch people, from Sindh and Punjab, into the province has added to the bitterness between the Baloch population and the state. This, combined with the passing of the Anti-Terrorism (Balochistan Amendment) Act 2025, which has increased incidents of unenforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings, has further put the state at odds with the people.
In perspective
Balochistan is once again at the centre of internal violence in Pakistan, picking up where it left off in 2025. Going with the current trends and the extent of violence witnessed during the recent attacks, the province is likely to continue seeing an increasing amount of violent attacks going ahead. This is primarily because the state still isn’t interested in engaging in political dialogue with the people and is instead continuing to pursue a military response. Additionally, with the recent expansion of ties between Pakistan and China and the transition to what is being called “CPEC 2.0”, the resentment being felt by the Baloch people towards the state is unlikely to decrease. Being the poorest province in the country, unless the root issues relating to the people’s political grievances and economic disenfranchisement fears are addressed, the violence is bound to continue increasing and expanding in scope.
CW Column: Conflicts in the Middle East
The fraught Iran-US negotiations, a constrained opening of the Rafah Crossing and the post-ceasefire prospects in Syria
Brighty Ann Sarah
What happened this week?
1. Iran
On 31 January, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian accused the US, Israel and European leaders of exploiting Iran’s economic woes to incite unrest during recent protests.
On 04 February, the US and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman despite sharp differences, with Washington pushing to include Iran’s missile programme and Tehran insisting negotiations focus only on nuclear issues.
On 06 February, the high-stakes US-Iran talks began in Oman over Tehran’s nuclear programme, as the White House warned that diplomacy was President Trump’s preferred option, but military alternatives were at his disposal.
2. Gaza
On 02 February, Israel opened the Rafah crossing between Egypt and the enclave, fulfilling a key part of the second phase of Trump’s peace plan for Gaza. The return of Palestinians into the enclave was slowed by Israeli verification, further only nearly 50 Palestinians were allowed entry into the enclave and the numbers have remained low since. Israeli strikes remained consistent, with tank shelling and airstrikes killing 24 Palestinians including seven children in Gaza.
On February 5, Reuters reported that the UAE plans to build a housing compound for thousands of displaced Palestinians in southern Gaza under Israeli control, under a “UAE Temporary Emirates Housing Complex” near Rafah.
3. Syria
On 05 February, Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan said a deal between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led SDF had eased pressure on Turkey’s domestic peace process with the PKK.
On 03 February, the head of the Syrian Investment Authority announced that Saudi Arabia would invest in a new private Syrian airline, part of a multi-billion-dollar package expected on 09 February following the easing of US sanctions.
On 02 February, Syrian government forces deployed to the Kurdish-controlled city of Hasakah, marking an initial step in implementing a US-backed ceasefire to integrate Kurdish regions with Damascus.
What are the issues?
1. Iran: The US coercion and the tough road ahead for Tehran
Iran has long defended its nuclear program as a sovereign right for peaceful purposes. However, the sustained US coercion has forced Iran to the negotiating table. The US military buildup in the region, paired with repeated threats of military action has forced the administration, already weakened by the domestic unrest and severe economic strain to pragmatically concede Washington’s demands for negotiation. Iran also lacks room to make demands for mutual concessions or equal terms, as the talks are fundamentally structured around averting the threat of US military action.
The negotiations, however, are fraught with stark differences in terms, where Washington insists on comprehensive curbs that extend beyond Iran’s nuclear programme, including halting domestic uranium enrichment, restricting ballistic missiles, ending support for proxy groups and ending the regime's crackdown on civilians. However, Iran has demanded that the negotiations be strictly limited to nuclear issues. These irreconcilable positions risk an impasse or even the derailment of the negotiations.
2. Gaza: The significance of the Rafah crossing and the challenges to its opening
The Rafah crossing, located on Gaza's southern border with Egypt, holds immense geographic and strategic significance as the only land gateway connecting the Gaza Strip directly to the outside world beyond Israel. For Gaza's more than two million residents, it functions as a near-lifeline, serving as the primary route for humanitarian aid, medical evacuations and the movement of people in and out of the enclave. The opening of Rafah was intended to ease the isolation, facilitating medical access for thousands awaiting evacuation and humanitarian efforts in the war-torn enclave.
However, Israel’s strict oversight and restrictions have undermined the purpose, constraining the movement to a trickle constraining even the nearly 20,000 population seeking healthcare outside the enclave. There is no allowance yet for substantial aid deliveries despite urgent needs for reconstruction materials and supplies. The crossing operates intermittently with no firm commitments to expansion. Israel’s persistent ceasefire violations compounds the crisis and the establishment of camps in the region with heavy restrictions on outward movement from Gaza risks the concentration of population in Rafah.
3. Syria: The fragile ceasefire and slow stabilisation
The ceasefire in Syria is gradually stabilising, with Syrian security forces steadily deploying into former SDF-held areas such as Hasakah and Qamishli. However, intermittent clashes and sporadic tensions continue to test the agreement, with instances of conflicts between government-aligned militias and SDF remnants near the Tishreen Dam and isolated skirmishes in eastern Deir ez-Zor over control of oil fields. The tensions highlight lingering mistrust and unresolved disputes over resource control despite overall restraint.
What does it mean?
For Iran, the asymmetric demands point towards strained negotiations or a possible stalemate. The fundamental mismatch, coupled with the US expectation of "tangible and significant concessions" in upcoming rounds, is likely to drag on the talks or even risk a complete derailment.
For Gaza, the reopening of the crossing offers little tangible relief, while progress in the peace process remains largely nominal. The heavy restrictions in accessing the crossing are likely to leave large populations stranded with no access to healthcare or aid and diminishing the meaningful implementation of the opening.
For Syria, the nascent developments suggest a path to de-escalation, economic revival and Damascus’ reintegration into the region. The ceasefire and the integration of the SDF into national forces is fostering tentative new avenues for economic and diplomatic engagement in the region, particularly the support from Turkey and budding investments from Saudi Arabia and other regional actors.
CW Column: Conflicts in Africa
Insurgent attack in Nigeria's Kwara state and renewed violence in South Sudan
Anu Maria Joseph
What happened this week?
1. Nigeria
On 4 February, Al Jazeera reported that gunmen killed at least 170 people in the western Kwara state in Nigeria. Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu announced the deployment of an army battalion to the state. According to the government officials, the gunmen attacked the Woro community. Separately, on the same day, 21 people were killed in another attack by gunmen in northern Katsina state.
On the same day, President Tinubu said that Operation Savannah Shield has begun "to checkmate the barbaric terrorists and protect defenceless communities." He also condemned the attack as "cowardly and barbaric" and blamed the "terrorist cells" active in the country. Meanwhile, Kwara's state governor, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, said that 75 local Muslims were "massacred" \by Boko Haram when they refused to "surrender to extremists who preached a strange doctrine."
2. South Sudan
On 5 February, Al Jazeera quoted Doctors Without Borders that one of its hospitals in South Sudan was hit by a government airstrike. The attack comes amidst the renewed fighting between South Sudanese forces and a coalition of opposition forces in opposition-held areas, especially in Jonglei state
What are the issues?
1. Nigeria: Spread of insurgency and ineffective state efforts
Islamist insurgency has recently increased in Kwara state. According to the claims by the Muslim majority in the region, the attack was triggered by the community's rejection of a strict interpretation of Islam. Boko Haram has been carrying out targeted killings against the community resistance against strict Islamic teachings in the region. Local vigilante groups were set up to protect the villagers.
The increase in attacks on Kwara also comes after the US airstrikes in Sokoto state in December 2025. There is an increasing fear that the US airstrike prompted the armed groups to flee to neighbouring states of Niger, Katsina and Kwara. The state of Niger also recorded an increase in insurgent attacks. Although the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) has announced continued support for Nigeria in its fight against insurgency, and the Nigerian government has announced intensified operations, there seem to be too little durable security improvements. The domestic efforts struggle to reach out to attack-prone regions on time, and often, the security of several villages is left to local vigilantes.
2. South Sudan: Renewed political rivalry and fear of another civil war
The renewed tensions between two political rivals, President Salva Kiir and Vice-President Reik Machar, have been ongoing since March 2025. It began when Kiir's government arrested Machar and several senior officials of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO) in relation to an attack by ethnic militia, the White Army, in Upper Nile state. Tensions have been simmering following the clashes between the South Sudanese forces and the opposition-linked forces in Upper Nile in March 2025.
The latest wave of attack came after the government restricted humanitarian access exclusively to the opposition-held areas of Jonglei state since December. In January, SPLA-IO-linked forces attacked and captured several areas in Jonglei state, including the capital, Bor. Bor is a strategic point on the way to the capital, Juba. Kiir's government has accused forces linked to Macher of plotting to overthrow his government. SPLA-IO's capture of Bor and the surrounding areas, the first of its kind since the 2018 peace deal which ended the civil war, has increased fears of a collapse of the peace deal and a renewed violent conflict in the country.
What does it mean?
In Nigeria, the intensified state response highlights a positive development. However, the effectiveness of the response will depend on timely action by the security forces and technical and military capacity to respond on time. The spread of insurgency across western and northern states suggests increasing challenges in achieving lasting security gains despite the US assistance, especially in the regions marked by weak state presence.
In South Sudan, the renewed violence has put the 2018 peace agreement in jeopardy. The old grievances have resurfaced. The relapse into another instability threatens the outbreak of another civil war in the country.
Peace & Conflict
Regional Roundups: From East Asia to the Americas
China, East & Southeast Asia
Myanmar: Russia signs a new military alliance
On 04 February, Mizzima reported that Moscow said on Tuesday that Myanmar and Russia have signed a five-year military cooperation pact, which analysts say has been crucial to the junta’s grip on power. Myanmar’s military snatched power in a 2021 coup, triggering a civil war, and has relied on backing from Russia as well as neighbouring China to keep its forces stocked. Air strikes by Russian-made jets have kept surging rebel factions at bay, while also frequently targeting civilians in attacks, some conflict monitors say, which amount to war crimes. Russia’s defence ministry announced the new pact lasting until 2030 after a Monday visit to Myanmar by the Kremlin’s top security official, Sergei Shoigu. Shoigu stated, “Russia fully supports the Myanmar leadership’s course to protect territorial integrity and strengthen national sovereignty and security.”
Myanmar: NUG reports over 5,000 civilian deaths amid intensifying military brutality in the five years since the coup
On 05 February, Mizzima reported that, according to a report released by the National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar, there are 5,188 civilian deaths at the hands of junta forces. A NUG spokesperson stated: “Over the five years of the Spring Revolution, the military commission’s brutality has intensified year by year. Recently, the military commission has increasingly used civilians as human shields during military offensives. Beyond burning villages, the military commission forces have systematically destroyed essential lifelines such as wells, ponds, schools, and hospitals, rendering communities unlivable.” The ministry’s data also indicates that junta forces conducted 289 airstrikes in December 2025 alone. The NUG also stated that its Ministry of Human Rights is continuously monitoring and documenting massacres, airstrikes, human rights violations, and forced conscription carried out by the Myanmar junta.
South Asia
Nepal and the UAE: The government thanks the UAE for granting pardon to 267 Nepali prisoners
On 01 February, The Himalayan reported that the Government of Nepal expressed gratitude to the Government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for granting pardons to 267 Nepali inmates on the occasion of the UAE's 54th National Day (Eid Al Etihad). In a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it was said that the decision reflects a gesture of friendship, goodwill, and humanitarian consideration and underscores the cordial bilateral relations between the two countries. According to the ministry, the pardons were granted following repeated requests made by the Embassy of Nepal in Abu Dhabi, in line with directives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The ministry stated that the pardoned Nepali nationals will be eligible to return to Nepal after completing the required legal procedures, provided they do not have any other pending cases or legal restrictions under UAE law.
Bangladesh: NCP alleges violence and administrative bias against ECP
On 02 February, The Daily Star reported that the National Citizen Party (NCP) has expressed deep concern over incidents of violence, intimidation, and a lack of administrative neutrality in different parts of the country. A party delegation raised these allegations during a meeting with the chief election commissioner. NCP central election management committee member Ayman Rahat spoke to the journalists after the meeting. He said to them that despite video footage of repeated election-related violence circulating widely, the administration has failed to take visible action, severely undermining the environment for a free and fair election. By referring to an incident in Noakhali’s Hatiya on 30 January, he said BNP and Awami League activists carried out a coordinated armed attack on NCP members, Jamaat-e-Islami activists, and residents.
Pakistan and Afghanistan: “Exponential rise” in cross-border terrorism becoming “intolerable for Pakistan,” says representative to the UN
On 01 February, Dawn reported that Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Asim Iftikhar Ahmad, stated that the “exponential rise” in cross-border terrorist attacks originating from Afghanistan has made the situation “intolerable for Pakistan.” His remarks come amid a string of coordinated attacks in Balochistan. The military has accused Fitna al-Hindustan of the attacks, and Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti said 145 militants had been killed within 40 hours. Speaking to Dawn, Ambassador Ahmad reiterated Pakistan’s accusation that the Afghan Taliban are sheltering militant groups targeting Pakistan, and alleged India's support for proxy elements operating from Afghan soil. Ambassador Ahmed stated that “There is broad recognition of the danger posed by terrorism emanating from Afghanistan,” adding that the country “unfortunately remains a terrorism hub under the Taliban.” He noted that the UN secretary-general had recently stressed the international community’s expectation that Afghan territory not be used for cross-border terrorism, an obligation central to the 2020 Doha Agreement, remains unfulfilled. He accused the Taliban authorities of complacency, stating that “Not only have they failed to prevent these activities, they have also sheltered, actively supported, and collaborated with these elements.”
Pakistan: Drone-backed operations end desert siege after deadly BLA attacks
On 04 February, police stated that Pakistan's security forces used drones and helicopters to wrest control of a southwestern town of Balochistan from separatist insurgents after a three-day battle, as the number of civilians and security personnel killed rose to 58. On 31 January, a wave of coordinated attacks by the BLA brought Pakistan's largest province to a near standstill as insurgents set off explosives and exchanged fire with security forces in more than a dozen places. Security officials said 197 militants were killed, while the attacks left over 22 security personnel and 36 civilians dead. The BLA under its “Herof” (Black Storm) operation reportedly killed 280 soldiers, bringing insurgents within one kilometre of the provincial chief minister’s office in Quetta, following mosque announcements urging public support. With Pakistan accusing India of backing the attacks, though denied by India, further urging Islamabad to address local grievances instead, a retired Pakistani general Amir Riaz, noted that the insurgency has intensified and evolved, warning that while military action may degrade militant capacity, lasting resolution requires political dialogue and improved governance.
Pakistan: China condemns Balochistan attacks; reaffirms support in combating terrorism
On 03 February, Dawn reported that Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian, on Tuesday, strongly condemned the recent attacks in Balochistan. He also said that Beijing would always firmly support Pakistan in combating terrorism. “We mourn for the lives lost, and our hearts go out to the injured and those who lost their loved ones. China firmly opposes any form of terrorism and will, as always, firmly support Pakistan in combatting terrorism, maintaining solidarity and social stability, and protecting the safety of the people,” he added. Apart from China, the US, the European Union and Iran, among others, have also condemned the attacks. Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said in a statement that 15 security personnel and 18 civilians had lost their lives in the attack, while 92 terrorists were killed on Saturday.
Pakistan: CDF visits Quetta to review security situation after Balochistan attacks
On 05 February, Dawn reported that Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) and Chief of Army Staff (COAS)Field Marshall Asim Munir visited Quetta, the provincial capital, to review the security environment after the 31 January targeted attacks by the Balochistan Liberation Army in multiple districts of Balochistan. He had received a comprehensive operational briefing on the prevailing security environment and internal security operations. During the briefing, he remarked that no terrorist or their facilitator would be spared, and no one can rationalise violence and terrorism on any pretext. He, along with Balochistan CM Sarfrz Bugti, also visited the Combined Military Hospital, Quetta, to meet injured personnel belonging to the Army, Balochistan Frontier Corps, and Police.
Pakistan: 31 killed by a suicide bomber at Shi'ite mosque in Islamabad
On 06 January, Reuters reported that a suicide bomber killed at 31 people and wounded almost 170 others during Friday prayers in a Shi'ite Muslim mosque in Islamabad, officials said, in the deadliest attack of its kind in the capital in over a decade. The blasts took place in Khadija Tul Kubra Imambargah on the city’s outskirts, with images showing bloodied bodies amid shattered glass and debris as worshippers fled in panic. With dozens seen lying injured in the mosque gardens waiting for help, police state that the attackers were intercepted at the gate before detonating the bomb. As officials have confirmed 31 deaths with 169 wounded, the conflict monitor ACLED stated that the attack bore the hallmarks of Islamic State, which, along with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, has previously targeted Shi’ites, a minority in the Sunni-majority country. Authorities pledged full support to victims’ families as the capital remained on high alert during a visit by Uzbekistan’s president. The attack followed a violent week nationwide, including coordinated militant assaults in Balochistan that killed 58 people.
The Middle East and Africa
The War in Gaza: The Rafah crossing opens under limited movement and surveillance; Journalists still barred from entering the enclave
On 02 February, Israel reopened the Rafah Crossing between Gaza and Egypt with conditions of limited movement and heavy surveillance. The opening of the crossing had been one of the key provisions of President Trump’s peace plan for Gaza. Nearly 50 people are expected to return to Gaza on the first day of the opening, reported Reuters. Despite the reopening of Rafah, Israel continues to bar foreign journalists from entering Gaza, a restriction in place since the start of the war. Israel’s Supreme Court is reviewing a petition by the Foreign Press Association seeking access for foreign reporters. Government lawyers argue their entry could endanger Israeli troops, while the FPA says the ban denies the public independent reporting from Gaza.
Syria: The State forces deployed into a Kurdish-run city under a ceasefire deal
On 02 February, under a US-backed ceasefire agreement, the Syrian government security forces entered the Kurdish-controlled city of Hasakah in the northeast. The ceasefire declared on 30 January prevented further clashes between President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s government and the SDF. The deal also provided for Kurdish-run regions to be merged with Damascus, reducing the risk of renewed conflict. Reuters reported that early this evening, its journalists witnessed a convoy of more than 30 Interior Ministry vehicles moving toward Hasakah, with two locals confirming that government forces would enter the city shortly. The forces are expected to be deployed in Syrian state buildings within Hasakah’s “security zone.” Its position weakened as President Donald Trump strengthened ties with Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda commander who has since restored Damascus’s authority over most of Syria.
On 02 February, Reuters reported that Iran warned of a wider regional conflict if the United States were to attack it, amid heightened tensions following a US naval build-up in the Middle East. Iran also announced retaliatory measures against the European Union after it designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation, with Tehran responding by labelling the EU armies as terrorist groups. The warning came as Washington increased its military presence in the region and President Donald Trump reiterated pressure on Tehran over nuclear negotiations and domestic unrest. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that Iran would respond forcefully to any attack but denied seeking confrontation. Despite the rhetoric, both sides have signalled openness to diplomacy. Reuters reported that Iran is weighing the terms for resuming talks with the United States, with possible meetings involving intermediaries such as Turkey. Russia has also indicated its willingness to help de-escalate tensions, including by offering to store Iran’s enriched uranium. The parallel tracks of deterrence and diplomacy underscore continued volatility in US–Iran relations.
The US-Iran Tensions: Nuclear talks to resume in Oman amid tensions
On 04 February, Reuters reported that, according to officials, the US and Iran are due to hold nuclear talks in Oman on 06 February amid heightened tensions, after Tehran requested a change of venue from Turkey and a bilateral format limiting the negotiations to its nuclear program. US President Donald Trump cautioned that "bad things" could arise without an agreement, as he deploys more military forces to the Middle East. The US recently intercepted an Iranian drone approaching the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier and clashed with IRGC vessels near a US-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. According to a source familiar with the situation, the possible US participants included envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, facing Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Regional sources also reported uncertainty about the involvement of Arab countries in the talks, as Iran wants only a bilateral format. Iran deems its ballistic missile program a red line, rejecting US demands to halt uranium enrichment, curb missiles, and end proxy support, which it views as sovereignty violations amid its deadly crackdown on anti-government protests.
Europe and the Americas
The War in Ukraine: No new targeted Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, says President Zelenskiy; Dmitry Medvedev warns against the expiry of the New START treaty
On 02 February, Reuters reported that Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said there had been no new large, targeted Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy system in the past 24 hours, noting that both sides had refrained from hitting each other’s critical energy infrastructure after a US brokered pause, even as Russian attacks continued on frontline energy facilities, rail links and cities. However, officials reported continuing strikes in Donetsk region and on a coal mine in Dnipropetrovsk despite the lull in energy attacks. On the other side, senior Russian official Dmitry Medvedev declared that Russia is “not interested in a global conflict” but warned it could not be ruled out, accusing the West of ignoring Moscow’s interests and using the Ukraine war to contain Russia. Medvedev also said the expiry of the New START nuclear arms treaty should “alarm” the world, arguing that the absence of any successor deal between Washington and Moscow would remove the last binding limits on the two largest nuclear arsenals and further undermine already fragile strategic stability.
The War in Ukraine: Russia attacks on Kyiv’s power sector despite Trump-brokered pause on strikes
On 03 February, Russia carried out its most devastating strike on Ukraine’s power infrastructure this year. It launched around 70 missiles and 450 attack drones in a coordinated barrage that caused widespread electricity outages in Kyiv and other major cities. The offensive struck key thermal power plants near Kyiv, Dnipro and Kharkiv, prompting an emergency blackout. The attacks came just after an earlier Trump-brokered pause on strikes, which US President Donald Trump had said Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to expire. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to include the US, Ukraine and Russia's negotiators in the Abu Dhabi peace talks are continuing amid ongoing violence. NATO’s secretary-general, visiting Kyiv, reaffirmed the alliance’s support for Ukraine’s defence.
The War in Ukraine: In Abu Dhabi, Kyiv and Moscow begin the second round of US-brokered peace talks
On 04 February, Ukraine and Russia's negotiators began a second round of US-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi. Ukraine’s top negotiator, Rustem Umerov, said discussions are taking place both jointly and in separate working groups to address different issues in the war. The talks are designed to build on earlier diplomatic efforts to reach a settlement, including on ceasefire terms and longer-term security arrangements. Despite the continuation of diplomatic engagement, the two sides remain far apart on core questions, especially Russia’s demand that Ukraine cede territory it currently controls in the eastern Donetsk region. It is a key sticking point that has previously blocked progress.
The War in Ukraine: Talks in Abu Dhabi continue with Kyiv, Moscow and Washington
On 05 January, Ukraine, Russia, and the United States completed the second day of US-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi. The delegation agreed to exchange 314 prisoners of war, the first such swap in about five months. US special envoy Steve Witkoff called the discussions “detailed and productive.” The agreement marked a notable outcome from the latest round of diplomatic engagement, though significant work remains on broader peace terms. Ukraine’s lead negotiator said talks were ongoing in separate working groups on various issues. Russia’s envoy noted efforts to restore relations with the US even as disputes continue. Meanwhile, on the battlefield, the Ukrainian military said it struck infrastructure at a Russian missile launch site, targeting facilities linked to long-range weapons.
The New START: The last remaining agreement limiting the Russian and US nuclear arsenal expires
On 04 February, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, expired after 15 years since its enforcement on 05 February 2011. The expiration of the treaty has sparked major concerns over the resurgence of a nuclear arms race. Alexandra Bell, the president and chief executive of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, expressed that “Nuclear risks have become more complex, more dangerous and we have seen leaders fail in their obligation to manage those risks.” Earlier, in September 2025, President Putin had proposed extending the treaty by another year, which President Trump had received positively. However, in his recent response, Trump indicated a shift in tone, stating that "If it expires, it expires,” and that “We'll just do a better agreement." Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, also responded that “This is a new moment, a new reality – we are ready for it.”
Originally signed in 2010 by senior Russian security official Dmitry Medvedev and then US President Barack Obama, the treaty capped Washington and Moscow at 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and established a detailed framework for inspection, verification and compliance between the two countries, which together hold about 87 per cent of the world’s nuclear weapons. Dmitry Medvedev has warned that the treaty’s expiry should “alarm everyone,” suggesting it would speed up the “Doomsday Clock.” “When there is an agreement, it means there is trust but when there is no agreement, it means that trust has been exhausted,” Medvedev stated. Former President Obama also wrote on social media that the expiry of the treaty “would pointlessly wipe out decades of diplomacy, and could spark another arms race that makes the world less safe.”
The US, the UN and the ICC: President Trump's administration imposes sanctions on ICC staff and a UN official, calling their actions “illegitimate and baseless”
On 06 February, President Trump's administration expanded sanctions against international justice bodies, including the International Criminal Court (ICC) and a United Nations human rights expert. Reuters described it as part of a broader campaign to counter actions perceived as threatening US interests. The US Treasury Department sanctioned Francesca Albanese, a UN human rights expert. She got placed on US's sanctions list alongside suspects such as terrorists and drug traffickers, after she said that a future UN report might name some US companies for their possible role in human rights violations in Gaza and the West Bank. The US treated this as a serious threat and put her on a sanctions list that is usually meant for terrorists and criminals. The administration also sanctioned eight ICC judges and three prosecutors, further restricting their financial and travel rights. The sanctions froze assets and barred access to financial systems, prompting concerns among legal experts and UN officials about the impact on international justice and human rights work. The US government said it acted against what it called “illegitimate and baseless” investigations, particularly those involving US companies and personnel.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Padmashree Anandan is a Project Associate at NIAS.
Akshath Kaimal is a Research Assistant at NIAS.
Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at NIAS and is currently pursuing post-graduation at Stella Maris College, Chennai.
Anu Maria Joseph was a Project Associate at NIAS.
Conflict Weekly Editorial Team: Adwitiyo Das, Abhimanyu Solanki, Akshath K, Brighty Ann Sarah, Lekshmi MK, R Preetha, Sakshi Yadav and Yesasvi Koganti
Assistant Editors: Brighty Ann Sarah & Anu Maria Joseph
Editor: D. Suba Chandran
