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Brighty Ann Sarah
14 March 2026 |
Conflict Weekly Note
In the news
On 02 March, in response to the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Hezbollah launched strikes at Israel’s missile defence systems in the southern city of Haifa. Israel retaliated by carrying out "precise and targeted" strikes against "senior terrorist elements” of Hezbollah in Beirut. The strikes killed Hezbollah's intelligence chief, Hussain Makled and over 300 civilians.
On the same day, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned Hezbollah’s actions as “illegal,” and proscribed the group's military actions. He reiterated the government's full readiness to resume negotiations with Israel.
On 04 March, Israeli forces began ground incursions in Lebanon, taking over strategic areas. Lebanon, after the population was issued immediate evacuation orders. Hezbollah Chief Naim Qassem asserted that the group “will not surrender no matter the sacrifices.”
On 10 March, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun called for direct negotiations with Israel with a four-point plan for a “complete truce,” but demanded the halt of Israeli strikes before any talks. He also levelled sharp criticism against Hezbollah for dragging the country into war.
On 11 March, the Financial Times reported that Israel had rejected Lebanon’s demands, insisting that all negotiations take place “under fire.”
Issues at large
1. The Hezbollah-Iran equation
Hezbollah emerged as a Shiite movement ideologically inspired by Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Its ideology is rooted in Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini's theological theories that demand expulsion of Western influence, destruction of Israel, allegiance to Iran’s Supreme Leader and establishment of an Islamic state. Funded and trained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah positions itself as a “resistance” movement against Zionism and Western imperialism.
2. The Israel-Hezbollah conflict
The Hezbollah-Israel conflict started with the latter’s 1982 invasion of southern Lebanon. In 2006, a UN-brokered ceasefire and Resolution created a demilitarised buffer zone between Lebanon’s southern border and Israel along the Blue Line and the Litani River. The conflict renewed in October 2023, when Hezbollah attacked Israel in solidarity with Hamas, sparking nearly a year of border clashes and the killing of long-standing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Under a US brokered ceasefire in November 2024, Hezbollah was to withdraw north of the Litani River and disarm, while Israel was to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon and allow the Lebanese Armed Forces to take control. The latest outbreak is a complete violation of the ceasefire agreement, launching both states into a full-blown war.
3. The Hezbollah inside Lebanon
Hezbollah is a major political actor in Lebanon, supported by the Shia community and capitalising on widespread grievances over political and economic marginalization by the country’s Sunni and Christian elites. It also grew its support base by delivering social services more effectively than the chronically weak Lebanese government, including hospitals, schools, post-war reconstruction, and even its own micro-finance institutions, gaining grassroots loyalty unlike any other Lebanese faction. Hezbollah’s major political sway has impeded the administration from exercising control over the group and defers to the group on security matters in Shia-majority regions. However, since the 2024 ceasefire agreement, the administration has taken bolder moves towards curbing the group's militant activities, even attempting to disarm the faction and centralise the flow of weapons in the country. The government’s latest rebuke is the harshest condemnation, revealing the rift between the state and Hezbollah.
5. Significance of southern Lebanon
Southern Lebanon, sharing its borders with Israel, is strategically vital for Hezbollah, with the rugged terrain suited for guerrilla warfare. It has long been the theatre of Israeli-Hezbollah confrontations with major Israeli cities, including Haifa, Safed, and Nahariya, within range of attack. Israel also claims that Hezbollah has extensive military infrastructure across the area, including underground munitions factories, command bunkers and tunnel networks. The region is also home to a major Shia population and a Hezbollah stronghold. The Litani River, Lebanon’s largest river and a major source of water, also flows through the region. Israel perceives it as its natural border and insists that Hezbollah does not breach the Blue Line and cross beyond the river. Israel’s current ground operation is designed to dismantle Hezbollah’s military assets, depopulate the area and establish a secure buffer zone along the Litani River.
In perspective
The renewed conflict has provided Israel with a long-sought strategic opening to pursue its goal of eliminating Hezbollah as a military threat. Israel is unlikely to pursue diplomatic means with Lebanon and forgo the opportunity to militarily defeat the group, particularly since the administration lacks the capacity to disarm and neutralise the group.
The conflict threatens Hezbollah’s military role, already severely weakened by its previous confrontation with Israel. The group is also facing an unprecedented hardline stance from the administration that is likely to worsen. With Israel’s refusal to negotiate a ceasefire, Beirut is trapped in a highly constrained and precarious position.
Brighty Ann Sarah is a Research Assistant at NIAS and is currently pursuing post-graduation at Stella Maris College.
