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Akshath Kaimal
2 October 2026 |
In the news
On 20 September, Reuters reported that seven Tigrayan militant groups, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), joined together to form the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival.
On 23 September, Al Jazeera reported that the alliance launched a large-scale military offensive against Ethiopian armed forces in Tigray, Afar and Amhara.
Between 25 and 28 September, fighting continued in Tigray as the army launched airstrikes and cut internet and telecommunication services.
On 01 October, Africa News reported that federal forces captured the strategic town of Alamata. 52 civilians had been killed, while over 700 had been hospitalised, according to MSF.
On 02 October, Ethiopia cut diplomatic ties with Eritrea, accusing it of supporting TPLF fighters in Tigray.
Issues at large
1. A region in perpetual conflict
Tigray remains locked in perpetual conflict primarily driven by ethnic marginalisation, territorial disputes, and economic isolation. Despite constituting just 6 per cent of Ethiopia’s 126 million population, the TPLF dominated national politics for 27 years until Abiy Ahmed’s 2018 election victory. Subsequent political disenfranchisement and federal centralisation by the Abiy government alienated Tigrayans, triggering the 2020 civil war. Core structural grievances remain unresolved: over 500,000 Tigrayans remain ethnically cleansed from disputed northwestern Tigray, while an estimated 15,000 Eritrean troops continue illegally occupying northern border areas like Badme and Irob. Economic neglect has also exacerbated local resentment. Federal blockades reinstated in late September 2026 have left 80 per cent of Tigray’s 5.5 million residents without banking, electricity, or telecommunications. With youth unemployment in Mekelle exceeding 60 per cent, economic marginalisation and territorial occupation have created the perfect recruiting ground for armed fighters.
2. The collapse of the peace agreement
The 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement was signed to end a devastating two-year civil war that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives and displaced 2.1 million people. Mediated by the African Union, the pact called for four major objectives: complete TPLF disarmament, the withdrawal of non-federal and foreign forces, restoration of federal authority, and unhindered humanitarian access into Tigray. However, implementation stalled almost immediately. By mid-2024, the TPLF had surrendered less than 30 per cent of its heavy weaponry, while Eritrean forces maintained active positions across northern Tigray. Political trust eroded further in May 2026 when TPLF hardliners led by Debretsion Gebremichael forcibly ousted Getachew Reda’s federally backed interim administration. The federal government’s decision to exclude Tigray from national elections in mid-2026 due to the security conditions eventually prompted TPLF forces to rearm and re-establish military control over regional institutions.
3. A regional alliance and support from Eritrea
The latest escalation marks a realignment of Ethiopia's conflict landscape. In September 2026, seven insurgent groups formed the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival. This coalition unites roughly 150,000 TPLF combatants with 40,000 Amhara Fano militiamen and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) fighters, bringing former enemies together against Abiy Ahmed’s federal government. Operationally, insurgents have deployed heavy artillery and mobile motorised units, seizing regional airports in Axum, Shire, and Mekelle to sever federal air transport. Externally, Eritrea continues to allegedly provide logistical support, small arms, and safe havens to TPLF and Fano factions, despite Asmara denying the allegation. As a result, Addis Ababa has severed diplomatic ties with its neighbour. Conversely, the federal Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) relies on state-backed regional militias, like the Tigray Peace Forces, and imported combat drones to launch precision airstrikes across Tigray. This has resulted in extensive military and civilian casualties.
4. A compounding humanitarian crisis
The latest round of hostilities has compounded the lingering destruction of the 2020 civil war, creating a severe humanitarian crisis in Tigray. Across the region, 4.5 million people require urgent food assistance, according to the UN World Food Programme. Yet the agency faces a critical 65 per cent funding deficit for 2026. Displacement has surged due to the latest violence, with 50,000 civilians fleeing Tigray between 25 September and 02 October, adding to Ethiopia’s 3.3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs). Women and children suffer the impacts of the violence disproportionately. Severe acute malnutrition among children under five has hit 28 per cent - nearly double the UN’s 15 per cent emergency threshold - while 52 per cent of pregnant and breastfeeding women in the region are acutely malnourished. In addition to this, climate-induced droughts, a regional cholera outbreak exceeding 12,000 cases, and federal service restrictions have left 80 per cent of health facilities non-functional, cutting off vital maternal care and emergency aid.
In perspective
First, the unresolved tensions finally reached a boiling point. The Abiy government’s decision to exclude Tigray from the general elections can be seen as the tipping point in tensions between Tigray and the federal government. Years of neglect and displacement were not addressed despite the peace agreement, and the fallout of that can be seen in the latest round of violence.
Second, Tigray’s rebel alliance could pose a major threat to Abiy. The alliance formed by the Tigrayan rebel groups presents a unique challenge to Abiy’s government, as these groups previously fought against each other. The newly-formed coalition has similarities to the FLA-JNIM alliance in Mali and could pose a significant military threat to the government. This is already evident in the increased sophistication of attacks and the takeover of regional institutions like airports.
Third, funding cuts and restricted access will worsen the humanitarian crisis. With funding for aid projects in Ethiopia seeing a decline in 2026, people in Tigray are expected to see worse outcomes in health, education and protection when compared to previous years. This is compounded by the federal government restricting Tigrayans’ access to aid and basic services. This will worsen not only the humanitarian situation but also increase resentment against the government, further deteriorating ties between the region and the government.
