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NIAS Global Politics Team
2 October 2026 |
War returns to Tigray:
Renewed violence, Broken peace agreement and a Humanitarian crisis
Akshath Kaimal
In the news
On 20 September, Reuters reported that seven Tigrayan militant groups, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), joined together to form the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival.
On 23 September, Al Jazeera reported that the alliance launched a large-scale military offensive against Ethiopian armed forces in Tigray, Afar and Amhara.
Between 25 and 28 September, fighting continued in Tigray as the army launched airstrikes and cut internet and telecommunication services.
On 01 October, Africa News reported that federal forces captured the strategic town of Alamata. 52 civilians had been killed, while over 700 had been hospitalised, according to MSF.
On 02 October, Ethiopia cut diplomatic ties with Eritrea, accusing it of supporting TPLF fighters in Tigray.
Issues at large
1. A region in perpetual conflict
Tigray remains locked in perpetual conflict primarily driven by ethnic marginalisation, territorial disputes, and economic isolation. Despite constituting just 6 per cent of Ethiopia’s 126 million population, the TPLF dominated national politics for 27 years until Abiy Ahmed’s 2018 election victory. Subsequent political disenfranchisement and federal centralisation by the Abiy government alienated Tigrayans, triggering the 2020 civil war. Core structural grievances remain unresolved: over 500,000 Tigrayans remain ethnically cleansed from disputed northwestern Tigray, while an estimated 15,000 Eritrean troops continue illegally occupying northern border areas like Badme and Irob. Economic neglect has also exacerbated local resentment. Federal blockades reinstated in late September 2026 have left 80 per cent of Tigray’s 5.5 million residents without banking, electricity, or telecommunications. With youth unemployment in Mekelle exceeding 60 per cent, economic marginalisation and territorial occupation have created the perfect recruiting ground for armed fighters.
2. The collapse of the peace agreement
The 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement was signed to end a devastating two-year civil war that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives and displaced 2.1 million people. Mediated by the African Union, the pact called for four major objectives: complete TPLF disarmament, the withdrawal of non-federal and foreign forces, restoration of federal authority, and unhindered humanitarian access into Tigray. However, implementation stalled almost immediately. By mid-2024, the TPLF had surrendered less than 30 per cent of its heavy weaponry, while Eritrean forces maintained active positions across northern Tigray. Political trust eroded further in May 2026 when TPLF hardliners led by Debretsion Gebremichael forcibly ousted Getachew Reda’s federally backed interim administration. The federal government’s decision to exclude Tigray from national elections in mid-2026 due to the security conditions eventually prompted TPLF forces to rearm and re-establish military control over regional institutions.
3. A regional alliance and support from Eritrea
The latest escalation marks a realignment of Ethiopia's conflict landscape. In September 2026, seven insurgent groups formed the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival. This coalition unites roughly 150,000 TPLF combatants with 40,000 Amhara Fano militiamen and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) fighters, bringing former enemies together against Abiy Ahmed’s federal government. Operationally, insurgents have deployed heavy artillery and mobile motorised units, seizing regional airports in Axum, Shire, and Mekelle to sever federal air transport. Externally, Eritrea continues to allegedly provide logistical support, small arms, and safe havens to TPLF and Fano factions, despite Asmara denying the allegation. As a result, Addis Ababa has severed diplomatic ties with its neighbour. Conversely, the federal Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) relies on state-backed regional militias, like the Tigray Peace Forces, and imported combat drones to launch precision airstrikes across Tigray. This has resulted in extensive military and civilian casualties.
4. A compounding humanitarian crisis
The latest round of hostilities has compounded the lingering destruction of the 2020 civil war, creating a severe humanitarian crisis in Tigray. Across the region, 4.5 million people require urgent food assistance, according to the UN World Food Programme. Yet the agency faces a critical 65 per cent funding deficit for 2026. Displacement has surged due to the latest violence, with 50,000 civilians fleeing Tigray between 25 September and 02 October, adding to Ethiopia’s 3.3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs). Women and children suffer the impacts of the violence disproportionately. Severe acute malnutrition among children under five has hit 28 per cent - nearly double the UN’s 15 per cent emergency threshold - while 52 per cent of pregnant and breastfeeding women in the region are acutely malnourished. In addition to this, climate-induced droughts, a regional cholera outbreak exceeding 12,000 cases, and federal service restrictions have left 80 per cent of health facilities non-functional, cutting off vital maternal care and emergency aid.
In perspective
First, the unresolved tensions finally reached a boiling point. The Abiy government’s decision to exclude Tigray from the general elections can be seen as the tipping point in tensions between Tigray and the federal government. Years of neglect and displacement were not addressed despite the peace agreement, and the fallout of that can be seen in the latest round of violence.
Second, Tigray’s rebel alliance could pose a major threat to Abiy. The alliance formed by the Tigrayan rebel groups presents a unique challenge to Abiy’s government, as these groups previously fought against each other. The newly-formed coalition has similarities to the FLA-JNIM alliance in Mali and could pose a significant military threat to the government. This is already evident in the increased sophistication of attacks and the takeover of regional institutions like airports.
Third, funding cuts and restricted access will worsen the humanitarian crisis. With funding for aid projects in Ethiopia seeing a decline in 2026, people in Tigray are expected to see worse outcomes in health, education and protection when compared to previous years. This is compounded by the federal government restricting Tigrayans’ access to aid and basic services. This will worsen not only the humanitarian situation but also increase resentment against the government, further deteriorating ties between the region and the government.
The "UN Gender Snapshot 2026" Report: Seven Takeaways
Systemic Erosion of Gender Mechanisms, Stacked Glass Ceiling and the Widening Gap
Preetha Renganarayanan
On 17 September 2026, the UN Women and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) released the “Progress on the Sustainable Development Goals: The Gender Snapshot 2026” report examining gender equality across all 17 SDGs. The central argument of the report is that while progress has been made across areas including women’s political leadership, entry into the corporate ladder, and legal reforms, these upticks remain fragile. It also underlines that the institutions built over decades to advance gender equality face systemic erosion or reversal at a time when it is most needed. With no SDG 5 target currently on track for 2030, the report places women’s leadership and decision-making at the centre of the gender equality agenda.
The following are seven key takeaways from the report.
1. Progress on women’s political leadership is losing momentum after years of upward trajectory
Women’s political representation has slowly increased in the last five years but the progress has lost its momentum and remains far from parity. The number of countries with a woman Head of State increased from 20 to 28 between 2020 to 2026. However, six in seven countries are still led by men. Progress towards equality in political power remains fragile with women’s representation in national cabinets declining to 22.4 per cent in 2026 after peaking at 23.3 per cent two years ago. Backsliding in women’s parliamentary leadership is also evident with their share declining in 54 countries in the last five years. Most importantly, even when women enter cabinet they remain disproportionately steered away from portfolios that command the highest economic and security power. The report therefore frames political leadership as a fragile gain requiring sustained measures to prevent reversal and accelerate parity.
2. Institutions built over decades to advance gender equality are facing systemic erosion
The institutional architecture supporting gender equality is eroding at a time when the global need for it is stark. One in three national gender equality mechanisms reported a decline in their institutional power over the past two years. Over the same period, nearly one in four saw their operating budgets cut. In addition, nearly one in three national mechanisms reported at least one of three setbacks, either declining government attention to gender equality, cuts to gender data collection, or the reduction or elimination of programmes and activities. The report therefore argues that the outcome is a framework that exists on paper while losing the institutional capacity needed to bring them to practice.
3. The “stacked glass ceiling” limits women’s influence over corporate decision making
Women make up around 40 per cent of the global workforce, but their representation lags sharply as they move up the corporate ladder. Among more than 9,600 publicly listed company boards across 62 countries, women occupied only 5.8 per cent of CEO positions and roughly 25 per cent of board seats. The disparity is also seen in realised pay with women board members receiving 67.6 per cent less on an average than their male counterparts. Importantly, women hold less decision-making power than their representation in 71.8 per cent of publicly traded companies, and this gender power gap rises to 82.8 per cent among larger firms. The pattern points to a “stacked glass ceiling” wherein entering corporate leadership does not necessarily give women equal share of the power to influence decisions.
4. Women’s organizations in humanitarian settings face an ‘existential breaking point’ with severe funding cuts
Women’s organizations are often the first responders in crisis settings, however they are among the worst affected by funding cuts. Organisations which have historically received less than 1 per cent of official development assistance (ODA) for gender equality are now facing an existential breaking point. Funding for them fell by 28 per cent between 2023 and 2024 with further reductions expected. A 2026 survey of 855 organizations across 52 crisis-affected settings found that 88 per cent of them are not in a position to meet present levels of needs, impacting over a million women and girls without access to previously availed services. In this context, the report underlines that defunding them is not only a failure for gender equality but it also undermines the localization promises made by global donors.
5. Women are confronted with a double bind of overrepresentation in poverty and underrepresentation in positions to end it
Women are disproportionately exposed to poverty while having limited say over policies pertaining to it. The report underlines the largest gender gap in poverty wherein women exceed men by 2 per cent among young adults. However, women account for only 19 per cent of ministers leading economic portfolios and 40 per cent of ministers responsible for social protection. This gap stands out as global evidence clearly shows the correlation between women’s fiscal/political leadership and better spending on public health, education and lower child mortality rates.
6. Women remain far below parity in peace processes despite bearing severe consequences of conflicts
With armed conflicts sharply intensifying in the last twenty years, women and girls bear severe consequences but are largely kept outside from the formal efforts to end it. Globally, 756.1 million women and girls lived within 50 kilometres of at least one armed conflict in 2025. In the same year, cases of conflict related sexual violence more than doubled when compared to 2024 figures. Despite this, over eight in ten peace processes worldwide witnessed no women negotiators or mediators. Worryingly, women were signatories to only two peace agreements. In this context, the report highlights the contradiction between the need to have women at the table versus their continued exclusion from formal peace and security decision-making.
7. Stronger national gender equality mechanisms, gender-responsive budgets, inclusive data systems and transforming discriminatory social norms as the way forward
The report decisively puts forth that gender equality remains a goal for the year of 2197, and not 2030 given the present barriers to women in power. The extent of this 171-year gap comes out clearly in the report’s assessment of SDG 5 wherein it notes that none of the targets are on track. In this context, the report calls for integrated actions to close the gaps. This includes strengthening national gender equality mechanisms, scaling gender-responsive budgeting and setting up comprehensive impact tracking systems. It also calls for flexible, multi-year funding directly accessible to women’s organizations, along with stronger sex-disaggregated and intersectional data systems. Electoral frameworks must also address the high financial costs of running for office which currently remains exclusionary for women from vulnerable backgrounds. Finally, the report stresses on dismantling discriminatory social norms by transforming narratives on women in leadership and expanding their access to opportunities, resources and decision-making spaces.
Newsmakers of the Week
Myanmar's deepening Rohingya crisis I US withdrawal from Iraq Escalating Ebola outbreak in Congo
Namrata L Ghanghatkar, Priyanka Makhijani and Urja R Kudalkar
Myanmar’s Rohingya crisis deepens:
Malaysia repatriates first batch of Myanmar nationals amid fears of persecution
On 29 and 30 September, Mizzima and other major sources reported that Malaysia began repatriating Myanmar nationals under a programme rights groups warn could endanger them, despite safety warnings from the UN and human rights organisations. Around 1,500 people were bused under security escort to a stadium near Malaysia's Lumut naval base, before boarding two Myanmar navy vessels and a hospital ship. This is the first batch of up to 5,000 people Kuala Lumpur plans to return. A Myanmar Foreign Ministry official said the operation involves "genuine citizens" and "is not about bringing back the Rohingya people." However, AFP reported neither government has clarified how many Rohingya are in this group, and rights groups fear some could face persecution amounting to genocide. Malaysia hosts about 215,600 UNHCR-registered refugees, including roughly 126,000 Rohingya. UNHCR said current conditions "do not support the safe and sustainable return of refugees," adding it was not involved in identifying those being repatriated. APHR separately urged Malaysia to halt the returns, citing risks of armed conflict and forced conscription. PM Anwar Ibrahim defended the policy as pragmatic diplomacy.
The US withdraws from Iraq:
After 12 years against ISIL, Washington hands security to Baghdad
On 30 September, Guardian and other major news reported that, the Pentagon announced it had formally completed the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, concluding Operation Inherent Resolve. The last forces and equipment left an air base in Erbil under a 2024 US-Iraq agreement, ending a phased drawdown. US troops first invaded in 2003, peaked at 170,000 in 2007, left in 2011 and returned in 2014 to fight ISIL. Some 2,500 personnel were stationed in northern Iraq and Syria in recent years. President Trump called the exit "a great day for America" and the Iraq war a "quagmire". The Pentagon described a shift from a wartime coalition to an Iraqi-led security effort, with continued training and intelligence support. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi presided over the handover and called it a "new phase" of sovereignty. Baghdad declared four "Sovereignty Days". The withdrawal leaves concerns. Iran and its allied militias hailed it as a victory, and Baghdad's weapons-surrender deadline for armed groups has moved to June 2027. Kurdish officials fear the loss of US air defences, as the region has faced over 1,000 drone and missile attacks since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February. Officials said a suspected ISIL cell planned attacks timed to the pullout, though the group is at its weakest, with a few hundred fighters.
Congo Ebola outbreak:
Cases surpass 8,000 as health worker shortages and spread deepen crisis
On 30 September, Reuters and other major sources reported that the Democratic Republic of Congo's Ebola outbreak had surpassed 8,067 confirmed cases and 3,901 deaths as of 26 September, a fatality rate of over 48 per cent, making it the country's largest and deadliest on record and the second largest in history after the 2014-2016 West African outbreak. The outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo strain for which no vaccine or treatment exists, is spread across 63 health zones in seven provinces, with Ituri the hardest-hit at 6,032 confirmed cases. WHO said the high fatality rate and the large proportion of deaths occurring in communities highlighted persistent challenges in timely case detection and early patient care. Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention data showed the outbreak had outpaced the 2014-2016 West African outbreak in terms of spread over the same period. Response efforts have been scaling up but remain strained. WHO epidemiologists increased from 58 to 114 between July and September, bed capacity rose from 929 to 1,510 across 54 health facilities, and more than 5 million people were sensitised through community engagement. However, over 1,400 additional health professionals are still needed, and health worker shortages have worsened, with 50 workers having died since May and payment disputes triggering strikes. G20 nations committed USD 2.9 billion to fighting the outbreak last week.
