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Glynnis Winona B
11 October 2026 |
What happened?
On 04 October, Brazil held its general elections to elect the president, state governors, state legislators, members of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. Nearly 159 million people voted, and the voter turnout stood at 78.92 per cent. Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party received 47.03 per cent of the vote, while current President Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party received 45.16 per cent. As neither candidate secured more than 50 per cent of the vote, a runoff is scheduled for 25 October. The first-round results also saw gains for right-wing parties in the Congress and across the states, with members of the Bolsonaro family winning Senate seats.
On 06 October, Flávio said that a right-wing majority in Congress would let him change the Constitution and "re-democratise" Brazil. Earlier, he had pledged to bring Brazil into the US-led "Shield of the Americas" security initiative.
What is the background?
1. Two primary contestants – Bolsonaro and Lula
The main contest is between Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva, who has led the federal government since 2023. Flávio's first-round lead has given him an advantage, while Lula aims to deliver a contrasting campaign to secure another term. Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced in 2025 to more than 27 years in prison and cannot contest. Now, Flávio carries the political movement of the family. Lula defeated Jair by a narrow margin in 2022. That election was followed by claims of fraud and by the attack on government buildings in Brasília.
2. The Right and the Senate
Brazil's National Congress comprises a 513-member lower house and an 81-member Senate. Politicians aligning with Bolsonaro have prioritised the Senate. Impeachment proceedings against Supreme Court justices are constitutionally conducted by the Senate. Bolsonaristas have demanded such proceedings following the court's imprisonment of former president Jair Bolsonaro for attempting a coup. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the case, is the main target of this demand. Removing a justice requires a two-thirds vote in the Senate, which means 54 of 81 seats, so even a larger right-wing bloc would need support from other parties.
3. Right-wing parties back Flávio
Right-wing parties have lined up behind Flávio ahead of the runoff. Republicanos and the União Brasil–PP federation have backed his candidacy. Parties supporting him now hold around 259 of the 513 seats in the lower house, and this gives him a strong political base. Brazil has a large number of parties, and presidents usually have to bargain with several of them to pass laws. A large bloc in the lower house would therefore make governing easier for Flávio.
4. Key Electoral Issues
Relations with the US, public security, Amazon conservation and labour policy have shaped the campaign. Lula has accused President Trump of attempting to influence the election. This accusation draws on the tariffs imposed by the US on Brazilian goods in 2025 and the sanctions placed on Justice de Moraes. Lula has also highlighted Flávio's links to individuals associated with Rio de Janeiro's criminal underworld. Meanwhile, concerns over Amazon deforestation and proposed labour reforms remain central to the political debate.
What does it mean?
First, right-wing advancement in Congress, state governments and the Senate strengthen Bolsonaro's political influence. This could increase pressure on the Supreme Court and its decisions. It may also open the way for an amnesty or reduced sentences for those convicted of the coup attempt. This would test the independence of the judiciary.
Second, Flávio's call to "re-democratise" Brazil raises concern regarding potential changes to existing democratic institutions, and critics fear that it may turn into a coup. Supporters describe the idea as a correction of judicial imperialism, while critics sense a risk to the independence of courts. Amending the Constitution requires three-fifths of both houses, which is 308 deputies, so the right would still need support from centrist parties.
Third, a Flávio presidency could bring Brazil closer to Washington's security agenda. Further, it could reshape its regional relations. This would mark a shift from Lula's policy of strategic autonomy and close engagement with BRICS and China, which is Brazil's largest trading partner. Closer alignment with the US and right-leaning governments could also strain relations with left-led neighbours.
Finally, a right-wing government could alter environmental policies. This can affect Amazon conservation and Brazil's climate commitments. Brazil hosted COP30 in Belém in 2025, so any weakening of environmental enforcement would draw international attention. The expansion of agribusiness and mining could also reverse the recent fall in deforestation. Labour policy may likewise move towards market-oriented reforms.
