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Advik Sunanda Mohan
18 October 2026 |
What happened?
On 09 October, President Donald Trump informed he had made a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Russia supplying diesel to the US. He informed that Russia would immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 01 million tons afterwards. He also stated Russia would deliver an additional 03 million tons in a short period. Sanctions relief and the announcement of an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine were amongst the other provisions. The deal was described by Trump as helping bring down diesel prices in the US and the rest of the world. He also thanked Putin for the deal, sending oil to the US. On the same day, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky described the move as “a weak decision by strong partners.” Putin issued a statement that Russia had “confirmed its willingness to supply oil and petroleum products to the US market and global markets at large.”
On 12 October, a bipartisan group of seven US senators released a statement, requesting the Trump administration to change its decision on the deal.
On 15 October, President Zelensky stated that Ukraine would resume its attacks on energy infrastructure, effectively ending the energy ceasefire
What is the background?
1. The high diesel prices and overall crisis
Since the beginning of the US-Iran war in February this year, diesel prices have steadily increased. In September, they reached a record of 6.52 dollars per gallon. The war with Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since March have made it more difficult to transport oil. Additionally, disruptions along the Red Sea shipping routes, the bombing of oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and the targeting of refineries in Russia and Ukraine have played a role in sharply reducing diesel supply. Higher transportation costs have contributed towards the prices increasing and inconveniencing consumers. Several groups that rely on diesel for their day-to-day activities, including truckers and farmers have been particularly disadvantaged. After the war began, US crude oil exports reached a record of 5.6 million barrels per day, and the country briefly became the world’s largest oil exporter. The US exports were primarily to Asian countries like South Korea, India and Japan. However, this also meant that the oil refineries are producing at near maximum capacity. This made it difficult for them to continue meeting the demand.
2. The pressure of the midterms
According to several opinion polls, Trump’s Republican Party will lose its majority in the House of Representatives in the US midterm elections scheduled for 03 November. The party could lose the Senate as well, with polls showing Republicans could lose in strongholds such as Texas and Kansas. Trump’s own approval rating has shrunk to 32 per cent. According to polling from the Pew Research Centre, the economy was the most important issue for 84 per cent of registered voters. A CNN poll in September showed that only 26 per cent approved of Trump’s handling of the Iran war. The continuing conflict and the failure to alleviate the economic crisis appear to have disadvantaged Republicans before the crucial elections.
3. The targeting of energy and oil infrastructure by Ukraine and Russia
Both Russia and Ukraine have carried out regular attacks on energy and oil infrastructure before. Russian airstrikes have shut down the Ukrainian power grid several times over the course of the conflict, damaging civilian facilities and causing power cuts. Russia has targeted with drones and missiles the oil and gas facilities present in Ukraine. For instance, the Kremenchuk Oil Refinery has been regularly targeted. Similarly, Ukraine has carried out long-range drone strikes on oil processing plants which supply energy in Russia. The growing Ukrainian airstrikes prompted Russia to scale up its oil imports, with Belarus and Turkey amongst the countries relied upon. Moscow also reached an agreement with the Kondensat oil refinery in Kazakhstan to process Russian oil outside the country; owing to the continuing strikes on refineries.
4. Trump’s desire for talks with Russia and Zelensky’s assertiveness
Since the beginning of his second term, Trump has shown an inclination towards making a peace deal with Russia. The president has often blamed Ukraine and Zelenskyy in particular for prolonging the conflict. Even before the diesel deal, Trump’s stance towards Russia had sparked concern. Zelenskyy has taken the assertive stance of fighting for Ukraine’s continued independence and remained consistent in his position against Russia. This has helped him garner support from several EU states and Canada, creating a divide with the US.
What does it mean?
First, the growing divide between Ukraine and the US. After Zelensky criticised the diesel deal, Trump called for his removal; and reacted angrily to his decision to restart strikes. With Zelensky and Trump holding opposing viewpoints, there could be growing antagonism. The US has played a key role in Ukrainian security, but a stance more openly in favour of Russia could change the conflict dynamics.
Second, the political and economic ramifications. The amount of oil promised under the deal may not be enough to meet American consumer demands, continuing the economic strains. Additionally, Trump’s deal has sparked criticism across the American political spectrum, including from his Republican party. Due to the traditional antipathy towards Russia and support for Ukraine amongst the American population, the deal could end up having negative political effects for Trump.
Third, the thaw with Russia. For Moscow, the agreement is a significant step away from the sanctions imposed on it by the US after the war. It could be the first move towards closer ties with Washington, and a greater acceptance of its objectives in Ukraine.
